JPM US Market Intelligence | Afternoon Briefing

• MKT UPDATES – Thoughts on US/Iran, Tech flow and Small Biz Survey.

• US MKT INTEL VIEW – We are moving to a Tactically Cautious / Neutral stance, and we update the Monetization Menu.

AFTERNOON UPDATES (NEWS LINKS)

• SPX -0.6%, NDX -0.1%, RTY -0.5%. WTI +169bps at $93.03, NatGas -198bps to $2.92, UK NatGas +359bps to £1.8880, Gold +11bps to $4,361, Silver -47bps to $65.44, 10Y @ 4.788%, and VIX @ 15.72.

• US: Stocks closed lower. Two main drivers of price action today: Middle East and AI. First, on the Middle East escalation, the main headlines today were the Houthis’ attack on Saudi and US strikes on Iranian targets near Kharg Island; WTI added 1.7% to $93.03; 2y and 10y yields were 3bp and 1bp higher, respectively. Airlines, housing and consumer were among the top underperformers. On AI, OpenAI’s Astra release drove another move higher across AI compute bottleneck trades: SOXX added 1.6%; software fell 2.3%. Outside these two themes, trade war tensions also further escalated: there is still no trade

deal between US and Canada after the retaliatory tariffs; Trump said he would seek to bar Canadian companies from selling to government contractors.

• EU/UK: Major markets closed flat. Thematically, defense, renewables and datacenters were among the top-performing baskets, while software and luxury lagged. UKX -0.1%, SX5E +0.1%, SXXP -0.0%, DAX +0.0%.

CATALYSTS TOMORROW (FULL WEEK CALENDAR)

• US MACRO DATA TOMORROW: Mortgage Applications at 7am ET. ADP Weekly Employment Change at 8.15am ET.

• US EARNINGS TOMORROW: AEO, ASO, AVAV, CHWY, CNM, COO, JMKE, NAVN, SAIL, SUNB

• GLOBAL MACRO DATA TOMORROW: (Japan) Machine Tool Orders at 2am ET. (France) IP at 2.45am ET. (UK) RICS House Price Balance at 7.01pm ET.

JPM MARKET INTEL EQUITY & MACRO NARRATIVE

• US/IRAN – WTI added 2.6% today to $93.39 at the close, the highest since late July, amid another round of strikes in the Middle East: (i) the Houthis said they again targeted Saudi’s Jazan refinery and facilities; Saudi said operations at several of its energy facilities were halted by Houthi attacks; (ii) US officials told a Fox News reporter that the US hit Iranian targets near Kharg Island. Meanwhile, on the demand side, Chinese crude oil imports, one of the key factors that limited the surge in oil prices earlier this year, rebounded (+6.2% in August vs. July).