Week Ahead in Economics Fed has more time; BoJ has less

Week Ahead in Economics Fed has more time; BoJ has less From On Our Minds Key Themes: US: July inflation data buys the Fed time for the fall Global Based on CPI and PPI data for July, July core PCE inflation probably will have been at a relatively K-shape: wealth gains, muted 0.15% m/m and 3.2% yr/yr. This likely means lower odds of a September Fed hike. And even policy risks and the AI if August inflation rebounds in line with our own forecasts, it would more likely shift the risk towards accelerant December than September. Data this week showed a rebound in July CPI core inflation compared to June, but July PPI data came in below expectations, including weaker prints for services Europe categories relevant for the PCE price index. BoE – on hold throughout 2026 unless energy prices rise further Japan: Everything argues for faster BoJ normalisation A long-standing lesson from economic history is that FX intervention alone, even when coordinated United States with the US, rarely reverses a structural depreciation trend. The yen, having already given back July CPI and PPI Releases almost half of its gains from the historic joint intervention in late July, is the latest reminder. Imply Another Soft Core Currency pressure is making the only credible solution clearer: faster BoJ rate normalisation. PCE Print Recent signals suggest the BoJ may finally be coming around to this inevitability. Next week’s GDP and CPI data should show an economy still on a reflationary path, likely strengthening the case for Asia the BoJ to move faster. India: July CPI: Case for pre-emptive tightening is strengthening Europe: Business surveys likely to soften amid heatwaves and rising energy costs Next week on the data front, we expect the batch of business surveys for August (Flash PMI, INSEE) India: Household debt: to show a modest deterioration. Higher energy prices are likely to have pushed up input costs, The growth risk is not while heatwaves may have weighed on activity, particularly in manufacturing, transport and leverage; it is the quality of leverage tourism. The focus will also be on the ECB's negotiated wage growth data for 2Q26, which we expect to have accelerated slightly, from 2.5% yoy in 1Q26 to around 2.6-2.7% yoy in 2Q. Any Indonesia 2Q26 GDP: upside surprise in the wage data could raise concerns that second-round effects are beginning to Strong headline, softer emerge, reinforcing our view of a September rate hike. underlying momentum om/publication/366094?la Key Data Releases and Events Coming Next Week: ng=en Monday: China retail sales, IP, FAI; Japan GDP, IP; Brazil economic activity Latin America Tuesday: US housing starts, IP; UK unemployment, wage earnings; Germany ZEW Brazil 2026 election Wednesday: FOMC minutes; BI (Indonesia); Euro Area CPI; UK CPI, RPI outlook - Lula 4.0 or will Thursday: China LPR; Japan trade Brazil join Latam’s Friday: US, Euro Area, France, Germany, Japan, UK PMI; Japan CPI; “conservative wave”?

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Calendar – G5 – 17 - 21 August G5 Monday 17 August Tuesday 18 August Wednesday 19 August Thursday 20 August Friday 21 August Euro area Unit Prev SG Cons Unit Prev SG Cons Unit Prev SG Cons Unit Prev SG Cons Unit Prev SG Cons Germany Euro area Euro area ZEW Survey Expectations CPI MoM S&P Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Aug Jul F 0.2 0.2 0.2 Aug P ZEW Survey Current Situation CPI Core YoY S&P Eurozone Services PMI Aug -77.6 -69 -69.3 Jul F 2.5 2.5 2.5 Aug P CPI YoY S&P Eurozone Composite PMI Jul F 2.9 2.9 2.9 Aug P 52 51.9 51.8 ECB 1 Year CPI Expectations Jul 3.0 2.8 -- ECB 3 Year CPI Expectations Jul 2.8 2.7 2.8 Negotiated Wages 2Q 2.5 2.6 2.6 Consumer Confidence Aug P -

Germany S&P Germany Manufacturing PMI Aug P S&P Germany Services PMI Aug P S&P Germany Composite PMI Aug P

France Business Confidence Aug 97 96 98 Manufacturing Confidence Aug Own-Company Production Outlook Aug -1 2 2 Production Outlook Indicator Aug -10 -10 -- S&P France Manufacturing PMI Aug P S&P France Services PMI Aug P S&P France Composite PMI Aug P United Kingdom Unit Prev SG Cons Unit Prev SG Cons Unit Prev…