Week Ahead in Economics US inflation on the rise as central bankers head to IMF World Bank meetings

Week Ahead in Economics US inflation on the rise as central bankers head to IMF/World Bank meetings

From On Our Minds Key Themes: US: September FOMC minutes: hawkish, but no hike expected until December Global The September FOMC minutes largely confirmed the hawkish message from the meeting, Global Economic Outlook: highlighting concerns about broad-based inflation driven by energy prices, tariffs, AI-related Resilient, but a narrowing demand and stronger pricing power, while acknowledging a solid growth backdrop and a labour margin for error market near full employment. Committee members remained divided between those favouring a more restrictive policy path and those viewing inflation pressures as largely temporary. CPI Economy in Brief inflation is likely to have increased further in September. We continue to expect the Fed to remain cautious, with benchmark PCE revisions likely keeping rates unchanged in October before a Europe further 25bp hike in December and a final 25bp hike to a terminal rate of 4.375% in March 2027. France 2027 Election Tracker n°3: the centre is Euro area: Rate pressures easing but unpredictable elections ahead fraying This week saw continued bond market unease and ECB rate hike expectations weakening, with Why don’t we forecast markets likely to remain on edge as elections in Europe approach. Next week is light on data, with more ECB hikes? the key focus on August industrial production, which could weaken slightly despite the decent German performance. Final September headline and core inflation should be unchanged, with United States the breakdown clarifying the impact of holiday-related items and if the recent heatwaves and September 2026 FOMC higher energy costs are beginning to feed through to consumer prices. In France, the Banque de Meeting Minutes: Steady France survey will reflect on higher motor fuel prices and the rise in the OAT/Bund spread but as She Goes likely remain broadly stable. On the European Council agenda for 15-16 October, energy will take centre stage with further temporary support measures likely, while stronger action on Chinese Midterms Election overcapacity may also emerge. Outlook: T-minus 5 Weeks Update Brazil election: Conservative gains improve fiscal outlook Brazil’s first-round election reshaped the political landscape, with Flávio Bolsonaro emerging as September Employment the runoff favourite and conservative parties strengthening their congressional presence. The Situation: Labour Market outcome points to a more supportive backdrop for fiscal consolidation and economic reforms Stability than under the current administration. Greater fiscal credibility would help improve debt dynamics, anchor inflation expectations and create scope for deeper BCB rate cuts in 2027-28, Asia even as the near-term monetary policy outlook has become less clear. RBI monetary policy review: A hawkish hike, Key Data Releases and Events Coming Next Week: but with an escape clause Monday: India CPI; Mexico IP Tuesday: Fed budget balance; RBA minutes: IMF World Economic Outlook and Global Financial Latin America Stability Report Brazil 2026 election Wednesday: US CPI, Fed Beige Book; China trade, CPI, PPI outlook - Brazil on track to Thursday: Euro area IP; US retail sales, PPI; UK monthly GDP, IP, manufacturing output join Latin America’s “conservative wave” Friday: US IP; Brazil economic activity; Warsh in fireside chat in Bangkok During the week: China credit data

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Calendar – G5 – 12 - 16 October G5 Monday 12 October Tuesday 13 October Wednesday 14 October Thursday 15 October Friday 16 October Euro area Unit Prev SG Cons Unit Prev SG Cons Unit Prev SG Cons Unit Prev SG Cons Unit Prev SG Cons Euro area Euro area Industrial Production SA MoM CPI YoY Aug -0.1 -0.3 0.1 Sep F 3.8 3.8 3.8 Industrial Production WDA YoY CPI Core YoY Aug 0.0 -1.2 -0.1 Sep F 2.5 2.5 2.5 United Kingdom Unit Prev SG Cons Unit Prev SG Cons Unit Prev SG Cons Unit Prev SG Cons Unit Prev SG Cons Monthly GDP (MoM) Aug 0.4 0.1 -0.1 Monthly GDP (3M/3M) Aug 0.4 0.6 0.5 Industrial…