Positive context积极背景
Stocks股票 / Industrials / PAYX
Paychex · Industrials
PAYX US listed · USD美股 · 美元
Paychex, Inc. is an American company that provides human resources, payroll, and employee benefits outsourcing services for small- to medium-sized businesses.佩切克斯公司（Paychex, Inc.）是一家美国企业，为中小型企业提供人力资源、薪资和员工福利外包服务。
Large cap大盘 · $45B
Industrials
Cyclical周期股
$125.40
+$5.03 · +4.18%
52w low52周低 $83.07high高 $138
Extended — wait for a pullback过度拉伸 — 等待回撤
The low is already in and price has run. Wait for a pullback; hold if you're long.低点已经形成、价格已经拉升。等待回调再入场；若已持有可继续持有。
Live实时
Company intelligence公司情报
The latest call, in context把最新财报放回历史脉络
A synthesized event record across management commentary and recorded metrics. Read as context; verify exact wording in the transcript before relying.综合管理层表述与记录指标形成事件档案。仅供参考；使用前请在电话会原文中核对准确措辞。
Live company record实时公司记录
JavaScript loads the source-bounded event record here. Open Terminal if the live module does not start.JavaScript 会在此加载受来源约束的事件记录。如实时模块未启动，请打开终端。
Continue with full transcript history继续查看完整电话会历史 ↗Pressure context压力背景
History mode历史模式
Context only仅供参考 · not a signal or recommendation不构成信号或建议
Narrative claims may await line-level citation; verify in the transcript.叙述性内容可能仍待逐行引用，请在电话会原文中核对。
Price chart价格图表
daily · interactive日线 · 可交互
Open in Terminal打开终端 ↗
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Open the live chart in Terminal在终端中打开实时图表 ↗
Candles, volume and moving averages — pan and zoom inside the chart.蜡烛图、成交量与均线 — 图内可缩放拖动。
MMastermind Terminal — live & interactiveMastermind 终端 — 实时互动 ↗
Technicals技术面
daily bars日线数据 · 2026-08-14
Momentum (RSI 14)动量（RSI 14）
72
Overbought超买区域
vs 50-day average相对50日均线
+16.2% above上方
Uptrend intact趋势完好
vs 200-day average相对200日均线
+23.0% above上方
Long trend up长期向上
Volatility波动率
79th percentile第79百分位
These readings feed the stance at the top — one source per number, refreshed nightly.以上读数构成页首的引擎立场 — 每个数字只有一个来源，每晚更新。
Earnings财务业绩
next report下次财报 2026-09-2946
Estimates being raised — 12 analysts预期上调 — 12 位分析师
Beat expectations 4 quarters in a row连续 4 季度超预期
Post-earnings drift: +13.9% (20d)财报后漂移：+13.9%（20日）
EPS surprise vs consensus, last quarters每股收益相对预期的超预期幅度（近几个季度） · average平均 1.2%
Valuation估值
Roughly fair vs sector相对行业估值合理| Multiple指标 | PAYX | Sector median行业中位 | Cheaper than相对便宜 |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (trailing)市盈率（历史） | 25.58x | 30.23 | |
| P/B市净率 | 11.60x | 4.41 | |
| P/S市销率 | 6.91x | 2.24 | |
| Earnings yield盈利收益率 | 3.91% | 3.11 | |
| FCF yield自由现金流收益率 | 3.80% | 3.73 | |
| Shareholder yield股东收益率 | 4.89% | 2.22 | |
| EV/EBITDA企业价值/EBITDA | 20.00x | 16.47 | |
| P/FCF市值/自由现金流 | 26.34x | 24.95 |
"Cheaper than" = share of sector peers trading richer on that multiple.「相对便宜」= 行业中该指标估值更高的同行占比。
Financials财务数据
fiscal years财年Revenue营业收入
$5.6B2025
20202025
5-yr growth5年复合增速 6.6%
Earnings per share每股收益
$4.582025
20202025
5-yr growth5年复合增速 8.5%
Free cash flow自由现金流
$1.7B2025
20202025
Operating margin营业利润率
39.6%
Net margin净利率
27.0%
FCF margin自由现金流利润率
39.3%
Balance-sheet quality财务体质 4/9
Bankruptcy risk: safe zone破产风险：安全区
Return on equity股本回报率 45%
Clean稳健
Leverage杠杆
Net debt / EBITDA净债务/EBITDA1.37
Current ratio流动比率1.28
Capital allocation资本配置
Buybacks (TTM)回购（TTM）$611.0M
Stock-based comp股权薪酬$111.8M
Share count change (1y)股数变化（1年）-0.3%
Why is it moving为何波动
6 checks · nightly六项检查 · 每晚
Sector / Theme行业/主题
Industrials (Equal-Weight) theme — #21 of 49 themes「工业（等权）」主题 — 49 个主题中第 21 位
Macro宏观
Rate risk runs through its market / growth beta, not a distinct duration leg.其利率风险通过市场／成长beta体现，并无独立的久期暴露。
Positioning持仓
Insider cluster activity内部人集中交易
Technical技术面
PAYX daily MACD crossed upPAYX 日线MACD上穿
Options positioning期权持仓
as of last close截至上一收盘Market makers are net long gamma — price pinned near current level做市商净持有正伽玛，价格倾向于在当前水平附近震荡
Expected daily move预期日波动
±1.95%
Expected weekly move预期周波动
±4.36%
25d risk reversal25d风险逆转
7.7%
Skew: greed偏斜：贪婪
Call and put walls are plotted on the Trade levels ladder →看涨/看跌期权墙已标注在「交易点位」阶梯上 →
Ownership & smart money持仓与聪明钱
13FInsider activity:内部人动向： -$0.2M net (2 buyers, 2 sellers)-$0.2M 净值（2 买家，2 卖家）
Signal history信号历史
engine events引擎事件
BOTTOMING → NEARING A HIGH筑底中 → 接近高点
TAKE PROFITS. A daily bottoming setup did fire (swing low in, momentum turned up), but it's LATE — price is already extended above the cycle low (formed ~24 day(s) ago @ 106.43) and overbought (daily RSI 72, 3-day 79 & weekly 74). A momentum cross is a LAGGING confirmation: after a vertical run it only triggers once the move is mature, so the bottoming entry has already passed. This is a chase, not a fresh buy. Last cycle was left-translated (topped early) — a bearish structural tell止盈。日线筑底形态确实已经触发（摆动低点出现、动量转向上行），但为时已晚——价格已显著高于周期低点（约 24 天前形成 @ 106.43）且已超买（日线 RSI 72、3 日 79 与周线 74）。动量交叉属于滞后确认：在垂直拉升之后，只有当走势已经成熟时才会触发，因此筑底入场早已错过。这是追高，而非新的买入。 上一周期为左移结构（见顶偏早）——属于看空的结构性信号
Aug 13, 2026
PAYX daily MACD crossed upPAYX 日线MACD上穿
The daily MACD histogram turned positive — fast and noisy, context rather than a standalone trigger. $125.40.日线MACD柱状图转正 — 快速且嘈杂，仅作背景。$125.40。
Aug 13, 2026
PAYX RSI reached overboughtPAYX RSI进入超买
RSI(14) crossed above 70 — stretched to the upside; context, not a timing trigger alone. $125.40.RSI(14)上穿70 — 上行过度；仅作背景，单独不构成择时。$125.40。
Aug 12, 2026
PAYX daily MACD crossed downPAYX 日线MACD下穿
The daily MACD histogram turned negative — fast and noisy, context rather than a standalone trigger. $120.37.日线MACD柱状图转负 — 快速且嘈杂，仅作背景。$120.37。
Jul 31, 2026
NEARING A HIGH → BOTTOMING接近高点 → 筑底中
BUY SETUP买入预备
Jul 28, 2026
Golden cross on PAYXPAYX 金叉
The 50-day average crossed above the 200-day — a slow, widely-watched bullish trend signal. $118.87.50日均线上穿200日均线 — 一个滞后但广受关注的看多趋势信号。$118.87。
Jul 28, 2026
BOTTOMING → NEARING A HIGH筑底中 → 接近高点
TAKE PROFITS止盈
Jul 28, 2026
PAYX RSI reached overboughtPAYX RSI进入超买
RSI(14) crossed above 70 — stretched to the upside; context, not a timing trigger alone. $118.87.RSI(14)上穿70 — 上行过度；仅作背景，单独不构成择时。$118.87。
Jul 27, 2026
NEARING A HIGH → BOTTOMING接近高点 → 筑底中
BUY SETUP买入预备
Jul 27, 2026
PAYX StochRSI turned up from oversoldPAYX StochRSI自超卖区上行
StochRSI popped back above 20 — the earliest oscillator heads-up that downside momentum is easing. $114.29.StochRSI重回20上方 — 下行动量趋缓的最早预警。$114.29。
Jul 24, 2026
BOTTOMING → NEARING A HIGH筑底中 → 接近高点
TAKE PROFITS止盈
Jul 21, 2026
NEARING A HIGH → BOTTOMING接近高点 → 筑底中
BUY SETUP买入预备
Showing the last 15 of显示最近15条，共 107 signals条信号
Company profile公司档案
Paychex, Inc. is an American company that provides human resources, payroll, and employee benefits outsourcing services for small- to medium-sized businesses.佩切克斯公司（Paychex, Inc.）是一家美国企业，为中小型企业提供人力资源、薪资和员工福利外包服务。
Style DNA — how it trades vs the market风格基因 — 相对市场的交易特征
Value价值
Below market低于市场
Quality质量
Below market低于市场
Investment资本投入
Below market低于市场
Shareholder payout股东回报
Below market低于市场
Low volatility低波动
Above market高于市场
Low market beta低市场敏感度
Above market高于市场
Earnings quality盈利质量
Below market低于市场
Short interest空头兴趣
Below market低于市场
Watch items — what could change the story关注项 — 可能改变故事的因素
- Capital intensity rising
The whole US universe — S&P 1500 and Russell 2000 — read nightly.覆盖标普1500与罗素2000全部成分股 — 每晚更新解读。
Signals, options positioning, smart-money moves and factor DNA — the same engine that wrote this page covers 2,700+ US stocks.信号、期权持仓、聪明钱动向与因子基因 — 撰写本页的引擎覆盖2700多只美股。
Statistics — full detail统计数据 — 完整明细
Valuation vs sector估值对比行业
| Multiple指标 | This stock本股 | Sector median行业中位 | Cheaper than相对便宜 |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (trailing)市盈率（静态） | 25.6× | 30.2× | 64% |
| Price / Book市净率 | 11.6× | 4.4× | 13% |
| Price / Sales市销率 | 6.9× | 2.2× | 9% |
| EV / EBITDAEV/EBITDA | 20.0× | 16.5× | 34% |
| Earnings yield盈利收益率 | 3.9% | 3.1% | 67% |
| Free-cash-flow yield自由现金流收益率 | 5.7% | 5.5% | 53% |
| Shareholder yield股东综合回报率 | 4.9% | 2.2% | 79% |
Relative strength相对强度
vs market, 1 month相对大盘（1个月）
12/100 — weaker than most弱于多数
vs market, 3 months相对大盘（3个月）
90/100 — stronger than most强于多数
vs market, 6 months相对大盘（6个月）
81/100 — stronger than most强于多数
vs market, 12 months相对大盘（12个月）
23/100 — weaker than most弱于多数
Rank in sector行业内排名
#225 / 262
0–100 percentile of total return vs all covered stocks.总回报在全部覆盖股票中的百分位（0–100）。
Price history价格历史
| Period周期 | This stock本股 | S&P 500标普500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 Week近1周 | +4.4% | +1.2% |
| 1 Month近1月 | +15.7% | +3.5% |
| 3 Months近3月 | +37.0% | +5.2% |
| 6 Months近6月 | +34.6% | +14.4% |
| Year to date年初至今 | +18.2% | +14.2% |
| 1 Year近1年 | -6.5% | +21.6% |
Trading information交易信息
Beta vs market贝塔
-0.02
Volatility rank波动率分位
79th pctile
Short interest空头占比
5.6% of float
Market cap市值
$45B
EPS (trailing)每股收益
$4.90
Off 52-week high距52周高点
-8.0%
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Financials — full detail财务数据 — 完整明细
Multi-year record多年财务记录
| 20202020 | 20212021 | 20222022 | 20232023 | 20242024 | 20252025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue营业收入 | $4.0B | $4.1B | $4.6B | $5.0B | $5.3B | $5.6B |
| EPS每股收益 | $3.04 | $3.03 | $3.84 | $4.30 | $4.67 | $4.58 |
| Free cash flow自由现金流 | $1.3B | $1.1B | $1.4B | $1.6B | $1.7B | $1.7B |
| Gross margin毛利率 | 68.3% | 68.7% | 70.6% | 71.0% | 72.0% | 72.4% |
| Net margin净利率 | — | — | — | — | 32.0% | 29.7% |
| FCF margin自由现金流利润率 | 32.5% | 28.2% | 29.8% | 31.1% | 32.9% | 30.7% |
Latest fiscal year最近财年
Revenue (FY)营业收入（财年）
$6.5B
Net income净利润
$1.8B
Operating cash flow经营现金流
$2.6B
Total assets总资产
$16.5B
Shareholder equity股东权益
$3.9B
Long-term debt长期负债
$4.6B
Dividends paid股息支出
$1.6B
Buybacks股票回购
$611M
Shares outstanding总股本
0.36B
Returns & growth回报与增长
Return on equity股本回报率
45.4%
Return on assets资产回报率
10.7%
Debt / assets负债/资产
27.6%
Profit growth利润增速
+6.2%
Asset growth资产增速
+56.5%
Accounting quality checks会计质量检查
- Earnings quality: accruals near the peer median盈利质量：应计利润接近同业中位
- Pricing power: gross margin +4.1pts over 6 years定价能力：毛利率 6 年上升 4.1 个百分点
- Capital discipline: assets +56.5% (aggressive expansion)资本纪律：资产 +56.5%（扩张激进）
- Balance sheet: Altman Z 3.28 — safe zone资产负债表：Altman Z 3.28——安全区
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Technicals — full detail技术面 — 完整明细
Indicator readings指标读数
RSI (14-day)RSI（14日）
72
RSI (2-day)RSI（2日）
92
vs 20-day average相对20日均线
+7.1%
vs 50-day average相对50日均线
+16.2%
vs 200-day average相对200日均线
+23.0%
Golden cross (50>200)金叉（50>200）
in effect生效中
MACDMACD
above signal位于信号线上方
Timeframe alignment多周期共振
Daily日线
momentum up — fresh upturn动能向上——刚刚转强
3-day3日线
momentum up动能向上
Weekly周线
momentum up动能向上
When daily through monthly point the same way, moves carry further.当日线到月线方向一致时，行情往往更有延续性。
Volatility regime波动状态
Range width percentile波幅宽度分位
78/100
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Earnings — full detail财务业绩 — 完整明细
Surprise history超预期历史
| Quarter季度 | Reported实际 | Expected预期 | Surprise超预期 |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 2026 | $1.32 | $1.31 | +0.8% |
| Feb 2026 | $1.71 | $1.68 | +1.8% |
| Nov 2025 | $1.26 | $1.24 | +1.6% |
| Aug 2025 | $1.22 | $1.21 | +0.8% |
Estimate revisions预期修正
Analysts covering覆盖分析师
12
Estimate direction预期调整方向
mostly raising多数上调
Estimate change, 90 days预期变化（90天）
+1.4%
Net upgrades, 30 days净上调（30天）
+8
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Options — full detail期权持仓 — 完整明细
Dealer positioning map做市商持仓地图
Call wall看涨期权墙
$130
Upside magnet上方磁吸位
$130
Downside magnet下方磁吸位
$125
Net dealer gamma做市商净伽玛
+$0.0B
Walls and magnets are strikes with heavy open interest — price often slows or gravitates there.期权墙与磁吸位是未平仓集中的行权价 — 价格常在附近减速或被吸引。
Volatility pricing波动率定价
Implied volatility (30d)隐含波动率（30天）
0%
25-delta risk reversal25-delta风险逆转
+7.7%
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Ownership — full detail持仓 — 完整明细
Insiders & shorts内部人与空头
Insider net buying (6 months)内部人净买入（6个月）
-$0.2M
Insider buyers vs sellers内部人买家vs卖家
2 : 2
Short interest空头占流通盘
5.6%
Days to cover回补天数
5.6
Short interest change空头变化
+4.7%
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。