Positive context积极背景
Stocks股票 / Industrials / PAYX
Paychex · Industrials
PAYX US listed · USD美股 · 美元
Paychex, Inc. is an American company that provides human resources, payroll, and employee benefits outsourcing services for small- to medium-sized businesses.佩切克斯公司（Paychex, Inc.）是一家美国企业，为中小型企业提供人力资源、薪资和员工福利外包服务。
Large cap大盘 · $36B
Industrials
Cyclical周期股
$101.37
-$0.22 · -0.22%
52w low52周低 $83.07high高 $129
Neutral — no clear edge中性 — 无明显优势
A cycle low is due in roughly ~0–2 trading days — watch for the turn, don't front-run it.周期低点预计在约 ~0–2 个交易日内出现——等待转向，切勿抢跑。
As of 2026-09-28截至 2026-09-28
Company intelligence公司情报
The latest call, in context把最新财报放回历史脉络
A synthesized event record across management commentary and recorded metrics. Read as context; verify exact wording in the transcript before relying.综合管理层表述与记录指标形成事件档案。仅供参考；使用前请在电话会原文中核对准确措辞。
Live company record实时公司记录
JavaScript loads the source-bounded event record here. Open Terminal if the live module does not start.JavaScript 会在此加载受来源约束的事件记录。如实时模块未启动，请打开终端。
Continue with full transcript history继续查看完整电话会历史 ↗Pressure context压力背景
History mode历史模式
Context only仅供参考 · not a signal or recommendation不构成信号或建议
Narrative claims may await line-level citation; verify in the transcript.叙述性内容可能仍待逐行引用，请在电话会原文中核对。
Price chart价格图表
daily · interactive日线 · 可交互
Open in Terminal打开终端 ↗
Loading chart…图表加载中…
The interactive chart could not load here.互动图表暂时无法在此加载。
Open the live chart in Terminal在终端中打开实时图表 ↗
Candles, volume and moving averages — pan and zoom inside the chart.蜡烛图、成交量与均线 — 图内可缩放拖动。
MMastermind Terminal — live & interactiveMastermind 终端 — 实时互动 ↗
Technicals技术面
daily bars日线数据 · 2026-09-28
Momentum (RSI 14)动量（RSI 14）
22
Oversold超卖区域
vs 50-day average相对50日均线
-14.2% below下方
Below trend跌破趋势
vs 200-day average相对200日均线
-1.8% below下方
Long trend down长期向下
Volatility波动率
97th percentile第97百分位
These readings feed the stance at the top — one source per number, refreshed nightly.以上读数构成页首的引擎立场 — 每个数字只有一个来源，每晚更新。
Earnings财务业绩
Estimates being cut预期下调
Beat expectations 4 quarters in a row连续 4 季度超预期
Post-earnings drift: +13.9% (20d)财报后漂移：+13.9%（20日）
EPS surprise vs consensus, last quarters每股收益相对预期的超预期幅度（近几个季度） · average平均 1.2%
Valuation估值
Roughly fair vs sector相对行业估值合理| Multiple指标 | PAYX | Sector median行业中位 | Cheaper than相对便宜 |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (trailing)市盈率（历史） | 20.68x | 27.93 | |
| P/B市净率 | 9.38x | 3.86 | |
| P/S市销率 | 5.59x | 2.07 | |
| Earnings yield盈利收益率 | 4.84% | 3.38 | |
| FCF yield自由现金流收益率 | 4.70% | 4.12 | |
| Shareholder yield股东收益率 | 6.05% | 2.48 | |
| EV/EBITDA企业价值/EBITDA | 16.43x | 15.24 | |
| P/FCF市值/自由现金流 | 21.29x | 22.19 |
"Cheaper than" = share of sector peers trading richer on that multiple.「相对便宜」= 行业中该指标估值更高的同行占比。
Financials财务数据
fiscal years财年Revenue营业收入
$5.6B2025
20202025
5-yr growth5年复合增速 6.6%
Earnings per share每股收益
$4.582025
20202025
5-yr growth5年复合增速 8.5%
Free cash flow自由现金流
$1.7B2025
20202025
Operating margin营业利润率
39.6%
Net margin净利率
27.0%
FCF margin自由现金流利润率
39.3%
Balance-sheet quality财务体质 4/9
Bankruptcy risk: grey zone破产风险：灰色区
Return on equity股本回报率 45%
Clean稳健
Leverage杠杆
Net debt / EBITDA净债务/EBITDA1.37
Current ratio流动比率1.28
Capital allocation资本配置
Stock-based comp股权薪酬$111.8M
Share count change (1y)股数变化（1年）-0.3%
Debt coming due到期债务
SEC filingsSEC 文件Debt schedule not loaded yet.到期债务尚未加载。
This panel is still catching up to the SEC filings for this listing. Check back soon — nothing is being estimated in its place.本面板仍在同步该证券的 SEC 文件，请稍后再查看；此处不作任何估算替代。
A cash-flow scenario is unavailable until the filing inputs are verified.报告数据核实前，现金流情景暂不可用。
Capital-need coverage is not available for this issuer yet.该发行人的资本需求覆盖信息暂不可用。
Reported facts remain separate from the cash-flow scenario until identity and filing provenance are confirmed.在确认身份与报告来源之前，已披露事实与现金流情景保持分离。
Research context only — reported figures from SEC filings, not a rating, a signal or investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 数据摘自 SEC 文件披露口径，不构成评级、信号或投资建议。
Why is it moving为何波动
6 checks · nightly六项检查 · 每晚
Sector / Theme行业/主题
Industrials (Equal-Weight) theme — #44 of 49 themes「工业（等权）」主题 — 49 个主题中第 44 位
Macro宏观
Rate risk runs through its market / growth beta, not a distinct duration leg.其利率风险通过市场／成长beta体现，并无独立的久期暴露。
Positioning持仓
Insider cluster activity内部人集中交易
Technical技术面
PAYX weekly MACD crossed downPAYX 周线MACD下穿
Options positioning期权持仓
as of last close截至上一收盘Market makers are net short gamma — price moves may amplify做市商净持有负伽玛，价格波动可能被放大
Expected daily move预期日波动
±1.63%
Expected weekly move预期周波动
±3.64%
Gamma flip伽玛翻转位
$110
25d risk reversal25d风险逆转
-0.2%
Skew: balanced偏斜：balanced
Call and put walls are plotted on the Trade levels ladder →看涨/看跌期权墙已标注在「交易点位」阶梯上 →
Ownership & smart money持仓与聪明钱
13FInsider activity:内部人动向： -$0.2M net (2 buyers, 2 sellers)-$0.2M 净值（2 买家，2 卖家）
Signal history信号历史
engine events引擎事件
UNCONFIRMED TURN → NEARING A LOW未确认转向 → 接近低点
GET READY. Day 67 of a typical 23-44-day cycle — inside the window where lows usually form, and short-term momentum is washed out. No confirmed turn yet. Last cycle was left-translated (topped early) — a bearish structural tell准备。典型 23-44 天周期的第 67 天——处于低点通常形成的窗口内，且短期动量已被洗净。尚无确认的转向。 上一周期为左移结构（见顶偏早）——属于看空的结构性信号
Sep 25, 2026
PAYX weekly MACD crossed downPAYX 周线MACD下穿
The weekly MACD histogram turned negative — the slower, less-whippy momentum read.周线MACD柱状图转负 — 更慢、更少来回的动量信号。
Sep 24, 2026
PAYX lost its 200-day averagePAYX 跌破200日均线
Price closed below the 200-day moving average — the classic bear dividing line. $101.59.收盘跌破200日均线 — 经典的空头分界线。$101.59。
Sep 23, 2026
UNCONFIRMED TURN → NEARING A LOW未确认转向 → 接近低点
GET READY准备
Sep 23, 2026
PAYX RSI reached oversoldPAYX RSI进入超卖
RSI(14) crossed below 30 — washed out; context, not a timing trigger alone. $104.49.RSI(14)下穿30 — 超卖；仅作背景，单独不构成择时。$104.49。
Sep 15, 2026
PAYX StochRSI turned up from oversoldPAYX StochRSI自超卖区上行
StochRSI popped back above 20 — the earliest oscillator heads-up that downside momentum is easing. $118.30.StochRSI重回20上方 — 下行动量趋缓的最早预警。$118.30。
Sep 10, 2026
NEARING A LOW → UNCONFIRMED TURN接近低点 → 未确认转向
HIGH-RISK · NIMBLE ONLY高风险 · 仅限灵活操作
Sep 8, 2026
BOTTOMING → NEARING A LOW筑底中 → 接近低点
GET READY准备
Sep 2, 2026
NEARING A HIGH → BOTTOMING接近高点 → 筑底中
BUY SETUP买入预备
Showing the last 15 of显示最近15条，共 121 signals条信号
Company profile公司档案
Paychex, Inc. is an American company that provides human resources, payroll, and employee benefits outsourcing services for small- to medium-sized businesses.佩切克斯公司（Paychex, Inc.）是一家美国企业，为中小型企业提供人力资源、薪资和员工福利外包服务。
Style DNA — how it trades vs the market风格基因 — 相对市场的交易特征
Value价值
Below market低于市场
Quality质量
Below market低于市场
Investment资本投入
Below market低于市场
Shareholder payout股东回报
Below market低于市场
Low volatility低波动
Above market高于市场
Low market beta低市场敏感度
Above market高于市场
Earnings quality盈利质量
Below market低于市场
Short interest空头兴趣
Above market高于市场
Watch items — what could change the story关注项 — 可能改变故事的因素
- Capital intensity rising
The whole US universe — S&P 1500 and Russell 2000 — read nightly.覆盖标普1500与罗素2000全部成分股 — 每晚更新解读。
Signals, options positioning, smart-money moves and factor DNA — the same engine that wrote this page covers 2,700+ US stocks.信号、期权持仓、聪明钱动向与因子基因 — 撰写本页的引擎覆盖2700多只美股。
Statistics — full detail统计数据 — 完整明细
Valuation vs sector估值对比行业
| Multiple指标 | This stock本股 | Sector median行业中位 | Cheaper than相对便宜 |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (trailing)市盈率（静态） | 20.7× | 27.9× | 71% |
| Price / Book市净率 | 9.4× | 3.9× | 16% |
| Price / Sales市销率 | 5.6× | 2.1× | 13% |
| EV / EBITDAEV/EBITDA | 16.4× | 15.2× | 44% |
| Earnings yield盈利收益率 | 4.8% | 3.4% | 74% |
| Free-cash-flow yield自由现金流收益率 | 7.0% | 6.0% | 60% |
| Shareholder yield股东综合回报率 | 6.0% | 2.5% | 85% |
Relative strength相对强度
vs market, 1 month相对大盘（1个月）
22/100 — weaker than most弱于多数
vs market, 3 months相对大盘（3个月）
66/100 — middle of the pack居中
vs market, 6 months相对大盘（6个月）
55/100 — middle of the pack居中
vs market, 12 months相对大盘（12个月）
19/100 — weaker than most弱于多数
Rank in sector行业内排名
#179 / 263
0–100 percentile of total return vs all covered stocks.总回报在全部覆盖股票中的百分位（0–100）。
Price history价格历史
| Period周期 | This stock本股 | S&P 500标普500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 Week近1周 | -12.7% | +1.3% |
| 1 Month近1月 | -18.8% | +0.9% |
| 3 Months近3月 | +1.5% | +6.1% |
| 6 Months近6月 | +12.0% | +22.3% |
| Year to date年初至今 | -4.5% | +13.8% |
| 1 Year近1年 | -17.3% | +18.5% |
Trading information交易信息
Beta vs market贝塔
0.04
Volatility rank波动率分位
97th pctile
Short interest空头占比
5.5% of float
Market cap市值
$36B
EPS (trailing)每股收益
$4.90
Off 52-week high距52周高点
-20.4%
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Financials — full detail财务数据 — 完整明细
Multi-year record多年财务记录
| 20202020 | 20212021 | 20222022 | 20232023 | 20242024 | 20252025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue营业收入 | $4.0B | $4.1B | $4.6B | $5.0B | $5.3B | $5.6B |
| EPS每股收益 | $3.04 | $3.03 | $3.84 | $4.30 | $4.67 | $4.58 |
| Free cash flow自由现金流 | $1.3B | $1.1B | $1.4B | $1.6B | $1.7B | $1.7B |
| Gross margin毛利率 | 68.3% | 68.7% | 70.6% | 71.0% | 72.0% | 72.4% |
| Net margin净利率 | — | — | — | — | 32.0% | 29.7% |
| FCF margin自由现金流利润率 | 32.5% | 28.2% | 29.8% | 31.1% | 32.9% | 30.7% |
Latest fiscal year最近财年
Revenue (FY)营业收入（财年）
$6.5B
Net income净利润
$1.8B
Operating cash flow经营现金流
$2.6B
Total assets总资产
$16.5B
Shareholder equity股东权益
$3.9B
Long-term debt长期负债
$4.6B
Dividends paid股息支出
$1.6B
Buybacks股票回购
$611M
Shares outstanding总股本
0.36B
Returns & growth回报与增长
Return on equity股本回报率
45.4%
Return on assets资产回报率
10.7%
Debt / assets负债/资产
27.6%
Profit growth利润增速
+6.2%
Asset growth资产增速
+56.5%
Accounting quality checks会计质量检查
- Earnings quality: accruals near the peer median盈利质量：应计利润接近同业中位
- Pricing power: gross margin +4.1pts over 6 years定价能力：毛利率 6 年上升 4.1 个百分点
- Capital discipline: assets +56.5% (aggressive expansion)资本纪律：资产 +56.5%（扩张激进）
- Balance sheet: Altman Z 2.87 — grey zone资产负债表：Altman Z 2.87——灰色区
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Technicals — full detail技术面 — 完整明细
Indicator readings指标读数
RSI (14-day)RSI（14日）
22
RSI (2-day)RSI（2日）
0
vs 20-day average相对20日均线
-13.2%
vs 50-day average相对50日均线
-14.2%
vs 200-day average相对200日均线
-1.8%
Golden cross (50>200)金叉（50>200）
in effect生效中
MACDMACD
below signal位于信号线下方
Timeframe alignment多周期共振
Daily日线
momentum down动能向下
3-day3日线
momentum down动能向下
Weekly周线
momentum down — fresh downturn动能向下——刚刚转弱
When daily through monthly point the same way, moves carry further.当日线到月线方向一致时，行情往往更有延续性。
Volatility regime波动状态
Range state波幅状态
expanding — range opening up扩张中 — 波幅放大
Range width percentile波幅宽度分位
100/100
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Earnings — full detail财务业绩 — 完整明细
Surprise history超预期历史
| Quarter季度 | Reported实际 | Expected预期 | Surprise超预期 |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 2026 | $1.32 | $1.31 | +0.8% |
| Feb 2026 | $1.71 | $1.68 | +1.8% |
| Nov 2025 | $1.26 | $1.24 | +1.6% |
| Aug 2025 | $1.22 | $1.21 | +0.8% |
Estimate revisions预期修正
Analysts covering覆盖分析师
2
Estimate direction预期调整方向
mostly cutting多数下调
Estimate change, 90 days预期变化（90天）
+1.2%
Net upgrades, 30 days净上调（30天）
+0
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Options — full detail期权持仓 — 完整明细
Dealer positioning map做市商持仓地图
Put wall看跌期权墙
$95
Gamma flip伽玛翻转位
$110
Upside magnet上方磁吸位
$110
Downside magnet下方磁吸位
$95
Net dealer gamma做市商净伽玛
+$0.0B
Distance to flip距翻转位
-10.6%
Walls and magnets are strikes with heavy open interest — price often slows or gravitates there.期权墙与磁吸位是未平仓集中的行权价 — 价格常在附近减速或被吸引。
Volatility pricing波动率定价
Implied volatility (30d)隐含波动率（30天）
0%
25-delta risk reversal25-delta风险逆转
-0.2%
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Ownership — full detail持仓 — 完整明细
Insiders & shorts内部人与空头
Insider net buying (6 months)内部人净买入（6个月）
-$0.2M
Insider buyers vs sellers内部人买家vs卖家
2 : 2
Short interest空头占流通盘
5.5%
Days to cover回补天数
8.1
Short interest change空头变化
-3.0%
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。