Macro & Monetary宏观与货币

Growth & Real Economy增长与实体经济

Growth momentum x level/breadth增长动能 × 水平/广度

Region地区 · United States美国 Frequency频率 · Updates when the source updates数据源更新时同步更新 Window窗口 · Latest reading最新读数
Data we need today今天需要的数据 Current当前有效
Coverage覆盖率
100.0%

Updated once a night — not live.每晚更新一次 — 非实时。

Technical notes技术说明

Technical receipt for operators — series names, timestamps and file paths. Not the customer reading.给操作员的技术凭据 — 序列名、时间戳与文件路径。不是给客户看的读数。

Conservative over the required set — a degraded optional leg cannot turn this green.在必需分项集合上取最保守值 — 可选分项降级不会让此处转绿。

Owner cadence, daily republish按所有者节奏,每日重新发布 · Latest accepted print最新已接受读数

Required-source availability必需数据源可用性

Page build time is not an economic clock and never makes a source fresh. This page is a static publication — it does not poll for live data.页面生成时间并非经济时钟,不会使数据源变新。本页为静态发布 — 不会实时轮询数据。

Last accepted source cut最近已接受数据截止
Calculation as-of计算截止
Page built页面生成
Where these numbers come from这些数字的来源

Required components and their source clocks必需分项及其数据源时钟

Component分项 Presence具备情况 Freshness新鲜度 Source as-of数据源截止
GDPNow growth nowcastGDPNow 实时增长预估 Present已具备 Current当前有效
Weekly Economic Index growth每周经济指数增长 Present已具备 Current当前有效
Leading tier diffusion (breadth)领先层扩散度(广度) Present已具备 Current当前有效
Coincident tier diffusion (breadth)同步层扩散度(广度) Present已具备 Current当前有效

What this means for you这对你意味着什么

Technical notes技术说明

Technical receipt for operators — series names, timestamps and file paths. Not the customer reading.给操作员的技术凭据 — 序列名、时间戳与文件路径。不是给客户看的读数。

What this state implies该状态意味着什么

Deterministic text from the accepted snapshot. No language model writes here.文本由已接受快照确定性生成,此处不由语言模型撰写。

Growth / real economy regime增长/实体经济体制

Accelerating momentum, broad strength动能加速,广度强劲

Effective date生效日期
Last reading上次读数
B
Technical notes技术说明

Technical receipt for operators — series names, timestamps and file paths. Not the customer reading.给操作员的技术凭据 — 序列名、时间戳与文件路径。不是给客户看的读数。

Method version方法版本
Growth method v1, published 20 Oct 2026增长方法第1版,发布于2026年10月20日
Prior accepted print上一已接受读数
B

1-month vector一个月位移向量

Nearest boundary最近分界 / Score points to距下列坐标轴分界

Movement since the prior accepted print相对上一已接受读数的位移

Growth momentum (6-month)增长动能(6个月) 64.72 Deteriorating to accelerating从恶化到加速 Current当前有效
Strength and breadth of growth增长的强度与广度 71.74 Weak to strong从弱到强 Current当前有效
Where it moved this month本月的变化方向 Weaker growth momentum, broader breadth.增长动能减弱,增长广度扩大。 Change since the last reading相对上次读数的变化
Technical notes技术说明

Technical receipt for operators — series names, timestamps and file paths. Not the customer reading.给操作员的技术凭据 — 序列名、时间戳与文件路径。不是给客户看的读数。

Numeric move since the last reading:相对上次读数的数值位移: Δx -0.19 · Δy +0.58

How close to a different reading距离另一种读数还有多远 14.72 Growth momentum (6-month)增长动能(6个月)

Where today sits今天落在哪里

This describes today. It is not a forecast.这是对今天的描述,不是预测。
A Decelerating Strong 减速 强劲 B Accelerating Strong 加速 强劲 C Decelerating Weak 减速 疲弱 D Accelerating Weak 加速 疲弱 Decelerating 减速 Accelerating 加速 Growth momentum (6-month) 增长动能(6个月) Weak 疲弱 Strong 强劲 Strength and breadth of growth 增长的强度与广度
Growth momentum (6-month)增长动能(6个月)64.72Deteriorating to accelerating从恶化到加速
Strength and breadth of growth增长的强度与广度71.74Weak to strong从弱到强
Boundary分界50.00 / 50.00
Technical notes技术说明

Technical receipt for operators — series names, timestamps and file paths. Not the customer reading.给操作员的技术凭据 — 序列名、时间戳与文件路径。不是给客户看的读数。

Hysteresis band滞回带 ±5.00 Applied against the prior print已对照上一读数应用

Regime map体制地图

Two disclosed descriptive axes. The grid is a description of the current reading, not a forecast.两条已披露的描述性坐标轴。此网格描述当前读数,并非预测。

Fixed, disclosed threshold on each axis每条坐标轴上固定且已披露的阈值

1-month vector一个月位移向量

Nearest boundary最近分界 / Score points to距下列坐标轴分界

Movement since the prior accepted print相对上一已接受读数的位移

Data problems数据问题

Technical notes技术说明

Technical receipt for operators — series names, timestamps and file paths. Not the customer reading.给操作员的技术凭据 — 序列名、时间戳与文件路径。不是给客户看的读数。

Diagnostics诊断

Constraints, missing components, source issues and method warnings.约束、缺失分项、数据源问题与方法警示。

  • Contradictory signals信号相互矛盾 The GDPNow / high-frequency growth nowcast reads strongly accelerating, but the coincident hard-data tier (payrolls, real income, manufacturing/trade sales, industrial production) is still trending down (direction=falling) - the nowcast acceleration is not yet confirmed by hard data.GDPNow/高频增长实时预估读数显示强劲加速,但同步硬数据层(薪资、实际收入、制造/贸易销售、工业生产)方向仍为下行(falling)——加速信号尚未获得硬数据确认。
  • Component histories not published未发布分项历史序列 Insufficient history历史数据不足
  • Scenario execution not available情景推演功能不可用 The assumption vocabulary is declared and closed, but no scenario function is published — so no Scenario tab is offered.假设变量词表已声明并封闭,但尚未发布情景函数 — 因此不提供“情景”标签页。
  • Alert service not available预警服务不可用 Eligible conditions are declared, but no service can create, list, evaluate or delete them — so no Alerts tab is offered.可用的预警条件已声明,但尚无服务能够创建、列出、评估或删除它们 — 因此不提供“预警”标签页。

What changed发生了什么变化

Today against last time, measured the same way.以相同方法将今天与上次对比。
Technical notes技术说明

Technical receipt for operators — series names, timestamps and file paths. Not the customer reading.给操作员的技术凭据 — 序列名、时间戳与文件路径。不是给客户看的读数。

Current accepted snapshot against the prior accepted snapshot, under the same method version.在相同方法版本下,将当前已接受快照与上一已接受快照对比。

No numeric comparison is shown. A change table would have to invent a baseline that does not exist, and a method-version change is reported as a method change — never as a delta.此处不展示任何数值对比。展示变化表将不得不虚构一个并不存在的基准;方法版本变更只按方法变更呈现,绝不伪装成数值变化。

Comparable with the last reading与上次读数可比

Metric指标 Prior上期 Current当前 Change变化
Growth momentum (6-month)增长动能(6个月) 64.91 64.72−0.19
Strength and breadth of growth增长的强度与广度 71.16 71.74+0.58

Component metrics分项指标

Each cell carries its own unit, basis, direction and clocks — frequencies differ inside one band.每个单元格自带单位、基准、方向与时钟 — 同一组内的频率并不相同。
Growth momentum (6-month)增长动能(6个月) Current当前有效
64.7264.72score (0-100)评分(0–100)

Deteriorating to accelerating从恶化到加速

Details详情
Reference period参考期
Basis基准
Composite, prior-only inputs复合指标(仅使用先验输入)
Definition version定义版本
Definition v1, published 20 Oct 2026定义第1版,发布于2026年10月20日

Clocks and owner时钟与所有者

Reference period参考期The period the economic value describes.该经济数值所描述的期间。
Observed观察时间Native economic or market observation time.原生经济或市场观察时间。
Released发布时间Provider publication time.数据提供方的发布时间。
not carried by this source该数据源未提供
First knowable首次可知Earliest time this value was lawfully knowable to us.本系统可合法获知该数值的最早时间。
not carried by this source该数据源未提供
Collected采集时间When Mastermind received it.Mastermind 接收到该数据的时间。
not carried by this source该数据源未提供
Revised修订时间Provider correction or revision time.数据提供方的更正或修订时间。
not carried by this source该数据源未提供
Worked out on计算日期Cut-off used for the derived result.推导结果所使用的数据截止点。

Owner所有者 Growth workspace增长工作区

Authority ceiling权限上限 Descriptive reading — this page cannot rank, size or trigger a trade描述性读数 — 本页不能排名、定仓或触发交易

Strength and breadth of growth增长的强度与广度 Current当前有效
71.7471.74score (0-100)评分(0–100)

Weak to strong从弱到强

Details详情
Reference period参考期
Basis基准
Composite, prior-only inputs复合指标(仅使用先验输入)
Definition version定义版本
Definition v1, published 20 Oct 2026定义第1版,发布于2026年10月20日

Clocks and owner时钟与所有者

Reference period参考期The period the economic value describes.该经济数值所描述的期间。
Observed观察时间Native economic or market observation time.原生经济或市场观察时间。
Released发布时间Provider publication time.数据提供方的发布时间。
not carried by this source该数据源未提供
First knowable首次可知Earliest time this value was lawfully knowable to us.本系统可合法获知该数值的最早时间。
not carried by this source该数据源未提供
Collected采集时间When Mastermind received it.Mastermind 接收到该数据的时间。
not carried by this source该数据源未提供
Revised修订时间Provider correction or revision time.数据提供方的更正或修订时间。
not carried by this source该数据源未提供
Worked out on计算日期Cut-off used for the derived result.推导结果所使用的数据截止点。

Owner所有者 Growth workspace增长工作区

Authority ceiling权限上限 Descriptive reading — this page cannot rank, size or trigger a trade描述性读数 — 本页不能排名、定仓或触发交易

Gdpnow growthGDPNow 增长 Current当前有效
3.503.50Pct saar年化百分比

Higher = stronger support数值越高=支持越强

Details详情
Reference period参考期
Basis基准
Level水平值
Definition version定义版本
Definition v1, published 20 Oct 2026定义第1版,发布于2026年10月20日

Clocks and owner时钟与所有者

Reference period参考期The period the economic value describes.该经济数值所描述的期间。
Observed观察时间Native economic or market observation time.原生经济或市场观察时间。
Released发布时间Provider publication time.数据提供方的发布时间。
not carried by this source该数据源未提供
First knowable首次可知Earliest time this value was lawfully knowable to us.本系统可合法获知该数值的最早时间。
not carried by this source该数据源未提供
Collected采集时间When Mastermind received it.Mastermind 接收到该数据的时间。
not carried by this source该数据源未提供
Revised修订时间Provider correction or revision time.数据提供方的更正或修订时间。
not carried by this source该数据源未提供
Worked out on计算日期Cut-off used for the derived result.推导结果所使用的数据截止点。

Owner所有者 Growth-nowcast desk增长即时预测小组

Authority ceiling权限上限 Descriptive reading — this page cannot rank, size or trigger a trade描述性读数 — 本页不能排名、定仓或触发交易

Wei growth周度经济指数增长 Current当前有效
3.053.05Pct annualized equiv年化等值百分比

Higher = stronger support数值越高=支持越强

Details详情
Reference period参考期
Basis基准
Level水平值
Definition version定义版本
Definition v1, published 20 Oct 2026定义第1版,发布于2026年10月20日

Clocks and owner时钟与所有者

Reference period参考期The period the economic value describes.该经济数值所描述的期间。
Observed观察时间Native economic or market observation time.原生经济或市场观察时间。
Released发布时间Provider publication time.数据提供方的发布时间。
not carried by this source该数据源未提供
First knowable首次可知Earliest time this value was lawfully knowable to us.本系统可合法获知该数值的最早时间。
not carried by this source该数据源未提供
Collected采集时间When Mastermind received it.Mastermind 接收到该数据的时间。
not carried by this source该数据源未提供
Revised修订时间Provider correction or revision time.数据提供方的更正或修订时间。
not carried by this source该数据源未提供
Worked out on计算日期Cut-off used for the derived result.推导结果所使用的数据截止点。

Owner所有者 Growth-nowcast desk增长即时预测小组

Authority ceiling权限上限 Descriptive reading — this page cannot rank, size or trigger a trade描述性读数 — 本页不能排名、定仓或触发交易

Leading tier momentum领先层动能 Current当前有效
0.530.53Index pts mom6指数点(6个月变化)

Higher accelerating数值越高=加速越快

Details详情
Reference period参考期
Basis基准
Six month momentum6个月动能
Definition version定义版本
Definition v1, published 31 Oct 2026定义第1版,发布于2026年10月31日

Clocks and owner时钟与所有者

Reference period参考期The period the economic value describes.该经济数值所描述的期间。
Observed观察时间Native economic or market observation time.原生经济或市场观察时间。
Released发布时间Provider publication time.数据提供方的发布时间。
not carried by this source该数据源未提供
First knowable首次可知Earliest time this value was lawfully knowable to us.本系统可合法获知该数值的最早时间。
not carried by this source该数据源未提供
Collected采集时间When Mastermind received it.Mastermind 接收到该数据的时间。
not carried by this source该数据源未提供
Revised修订时间Provider correction or revision time.数据提供方的更正或修订时间。
not carried by this source该数据源未提供
Worked out on计算日期Cut-off used for the derived result.推导结果所使用的数据截止点。

Owner所有者 Business-cycle desk商业周期小组

Authority ceiling权限上限 Descriptive reading — this page cannot rank, size or trigger a trade描述性读数 — 本页不能排名、定仓或触发交易

Coincident tier momentum同步层动能 Current当前有效
−0.07−0.07Index pts mom6指数点(6个月变化)

Higher accelerating数值越高=加速越快

Details详情
Reference period参考期
Basis基准
Six month momentum6个月动能
Definition version定义版本
Definition v1, published 31 Oct 2026定义第1版,发布于2026年10月31日

Clocks and owner时钟与所有者

Reference period参考期The period the economic value describes.该经济数值所描述的期间。
Observed观察时间Native economic or market observation time.原生经济或市场观察时间。
Released发布时间Provider publication time.数据提供方的发布时间。
not carried by this source该数据源未提供
First knowable首次可知Earliest time this value was lawfully knowable to us.本系统可合法获知该数值的最早时间。
not carried by this source该数据源未提供
Collected采集时间When Mastermind received it.Mastermind 接收到该数据的时间。
not carried by this source该数据源未提供
Revised修订时间Provider correction or revision time.数据提供方的更正或修订时间。
not carried by this source该数据源未提供
Worked out on计算日期Cut-off used for the derived result.推导结果所使用的数据截止点。

Owner所有者 Business-cycle desk商业周期小组

Authority ceiling权限上限 Descriptive reading — this page cannot rank, size or trigger a trade描述性读数 — 本页不能排名、定仓或触发交易

Leading diffusion领先扩散 Current当前有效
75.0075.00Pct legs positive上升分项占比

Higher broader数值越高=覆盖越广

Details详情
Reference period参考期
Basis基准
Level水平值
Definition version定义版本
Definition v1, published 31 Oct 2026定义第1版,发布于2026年10月31日

Clocks and owner时钟与所有者

Reference period参考期The period the economic value describes.该经济数值所描述的期间。
Observed观察时间Native economic or market observation time.原生经济或市场观察时间。
Released发布时间Provider publication time.数据提供方的发布时间。
not carried by this source该数据源未提供
First knowable首次可知Earliest time this value was lawfully knowable to us.本系统可合法获知该数值的最早时间。
not carried by this source该数据源未提供
Collected采集时间When Mastermind received it.Mastermind 接收到该数据的时间。
not carried by this source该数据源未提供
Revised修订时间Provider correction or revision time.数据提供方的更正或修订时间。
not carried by this source该数据源未提供
Worked out on计算日期Cut-off used for the derived result.推导结果所使用的数据截止点。

Owner所有者 Business-cycle desk商业周期小组

Authority ceiling权限上限 Descriptive reading — this page cannot rank, size or trigger a trade描述性读数 — 本页不能排名、定仓或触发交易

Coincident diffusion同步扩散 Current当前有效
100.00100.00Pct legs positive上升分项占比

Higher broader数值越高=覆盖越广

Details详情
Reference period参考期
Basis基准
Level水平值
Definition version定义版本
Definition v1, published 31 Oct 2026定义第1版,发布于2026年10月31日

Clocks and owner时钟与所有者

Reference period参考期The period the economic value describes.该经济数值所描述的期间。
Observed观察时间Native economic or market observation time.原生经济或市场观察时间。
Released发布时间Provider publication time.数据提供方的发布时间。
not carried by this source该数据源未提供
First knowable首次可知Earliest time this value was lawfully knowable to us.本系统可合法获知该数值的最早时间。
not carried by this source该数据源未提供
Collected采集时间When Mastermind received it.Mastermind 接收到该数据的时间。
not carried by this source该数据源未提供
Revised修订时间Provider correction or revision time.数据提供方的更正或修订时间。
not carried by this source该数据源未提供
Worked out on计算日期Cut-off used for the derived result.推导结果所使用的数据截止点。

Owner所有者 Business-cycle desk商业周期小组

Authority ceiling权限上限 Descriptive reading — this page cannot rank, size or trigger a trade描述性读数 — 本页不能排名、定仓或触发交易

Coincident index level同步指数水平 Current当前有效
36.2136.21Index 0 100指数(0–100)

Higher = stronger support数值越高=支持越强

Details详情
Reference period参考期
Basis基准
Level水平值
Definition version定义版本
Definition v1, published 31 Oct 2026定义第1版,发布于2026年10月31日

Clocks and owner时钟与所有者

Reference period参考期The period the economic value describes.该经济数值所描述的期间。
Observed观察时间Native economic or market observation time.原生经济或市场观察时间。
Released发布时间Provider publication time.数据提供方的发布时间。
not carried by this source该数据源未提供
First knowable首次可知Earliest time this value was lawfully knowable to us.本系统可合法获知该数值的最早时间。
not carried by this source该数据源未提供
Collected采集时间When Mastermind received it.Mastermind 接收到该数据的时间。
not carried by this source该数据源未提供
Revised修订时间Provider correction or revision time.数据提供方的更正或修订时间。
not carried by this source该数据源未提供
Worked out on计算日期Cut-off used for the derived result.推导结果所使用的数据截止点。

Owner所有者 Business-cycle desk商业周期小组

Authority ceiling权限上限 Descriptive reading — this page cannot rank, size or trigger a trade描述性读数 — 本页不能排名、定仓或触发交易

Growth score增长评分 Current当前有效
−0.07−0.07Zz 值

Higher = stronger support数值越高=支持越强

Details详情
Reference period参考期
Basis基准
Level水平值
Definition version定义版本
Definition v1, published 20 Oct 2026定义第1版,发布于2026年10月20日

Clocks and owner时钟与所有者

Reference period参考期The period the economic value describes.该经济数值所描述的期间。
Observed观察时间Native economic or market observation time.原生经济或市场观察时间。
Released发布时间Provider publication time.数据提供方的发布时间。
not carried by this source该数据源未提供
First knowable首次可知Earliest time this value was lawfully knowable to us.本系统可合法获知该数值的最早时间。
not carried by this source该数据源未提供
Collected采集时间When Mastermind received it.Mastermind 接收到该数据的时间。
not carried by this source该数据源未提供
Revised修订时间Provider correction or revision time.数据提供方的更正或修订时间。
not carried by this source该数据源未提供
Worked out on计算日期Cut-off used for the derived result.推导结果所使用的数据截止点。

Owner所有者 Growth-score desk增长评分小组

Authority ceiling权限上限 Descriptive reading — this page cannot rank, size or trigger a trade描述性读数 — 本页不能排名、定仓或触发交易

Leading tier index领先层指数 Current当前有效
95.1495.14Index 0 100指数(0–100)

Higher = stronger support数值越高=支持越强

Details详情
Reference period参考期
Basis基准
Level水平值
Definition version定义版本
Definition v1, published 31 Oct 2026定义第1版,发布于2026年10月31日

Clocks and owner时钟与所有者

Reference period参考期The period the economic value describes.该经济数值所描述的期间。
Observed观察时间Native economic or market observation time.原生经济或市场观察时间。
Released发布时间Provider publication time.数据提供方的发布时间。
not carried by this source该数据源未提供
First knowable首次可知Earliest time this value was lawfully knowable to us.本系统可合法获知该数值的最早时间。
not carried by this source该数据源未提供
Collected采集时间When Mastermind received it.Mastermind 接收到该数据的时间。
not carried by this source该数据源未提供
Revised修订时间Provider correction or revision time.数据提供方的更正或修订时间。
not carried by this source该数据源未提供
Worked out on计算日期Cut-off used for the derived result.推导结果所使用的数据截止点。

Owner所有者 Business-cycle desk商业周期小组

Authority ceiling权限上限 Descriptive reading — this page cannot rank, size or trigger a trade描述性读数 — 本页不能排名、定仓或触发交易

Lagging tier index滞后层指数 Current当前有效
92.7392.73Index 0 100指数(0–100)

Higher = stronger support数值越高=支持越强

Details详情
Reference period参考期
Basis基准
Level水平值
Definition version定义版本
Definition v1, published 31 Oct 2026定义第1版,发布于2026年10月31日

Clocks and owner时钟与所有者

Reference period参考期The period the economic value describes.该经济数值所描述的期间。
Observed观察时间Native economic or market observation time.原生经济或市场观察时间。
Released发布时间Provider publication time.数据提供方的发布时间。
not carried by this source该数据源未提供
First knowable首次可知Earliest time this value was lawfully knowable to us.本系统可合法获知该数值的最早时间。
not carried by this source该数据源未提供
Collected采集时间When Mastermind received it.Mastermind 接收到该数据的时间。
not carried by this source该数据源未提供
Revised修订时间Provider correction or revision time.数据提供方的更正或修订时间。
not carried by this source该数据源未提供
Worked out on计算日期Cut-off used for the derived result.推导结果所使用的数据截止点。

Owner所有者 Business-cycle desk商业周期小组

Authority ceiling权限上限 Descriptive reading — this page cannot rank, size or trigger a trade描述性读数 — 本页不能排名、定仓或触发交易

Lagging tier diffusion滞后层扩散 Current当前有效
75.0075.00Pct legs positive上升分项占比

Higher broader数值越高=覆盖越广

Details详情
Reference period参考期
Basis基准
Level水平值
Definition version定义版本
Definition v1, published 31 Oct 2026定义第1版,发布于2026年10月31日

Clocks and owner时钟与所有者

Reference period参考期The period the economic value describes.该经济数值所描述的期间。
Observed观察时间Native economic or market observation time.原生经济或市场观察时间。
Released发布时间Provider publication time.数据提供方的发布时间。
not carried by this source该数据源未提供
First knowable首次可知Earliest time this value was lawfully knowable to us.本系统可合法获知该数值的最早时间。
not carried by this source该数据源未提供
Collected采集时间When Mastermind received it.Mastermind 接收到该数据的时间。
not carried by this source该数据源未提供
Revised修订时间Provider correction or revision time.数据提供方的更正或修订时间。
not carried by this source该数据源未提供
Worked out on计算日期Cut-off used for the derived result.推导结果所使用的数据截止点。

Owner所有者 Business-cycle desk商业周期小组

Authority ceiling权限上限 Descriptive reading — this page cannot rank, size or trigger a trade描述性读数 — 本页不能排名、定仓或触发交易

Lagging tier momentum滞后层动能 Current当前有效
0.350.35Index pts mom6指数点(6个月变化)

Higher accelerating数值越高=加速越快

Details详情
Reference period参考期
Basis基准
Six month momentum6个月动能
Definition version定义版本
Definition v1, published 31 Oct 2026定义第1版,发布于2026年10月31日

Clocks and owner时钟与所有者

Reference period参考期The period the economic value describes.该经济数值所描述的期间。
Observed观察时间Native economic or market observation time.原生经济或市场观察时间。
Released发布时间Provider publication time.数据提供方的发布时间。
not carried by this source该数据源未提供
First knowable首次可知Earliest time this value was lawfully knowable to us.本系统可合法获知该数值的最早时间。
not carried by this source该数据源未提供
Collected采集时间When Mastermind received it.Mastermind 接收到该数据的时间。
not carried by this source该数据源未提供
Revised修订时间Provider correction or revision time.数据提供方的更正或修订时间。
not carried by this source该数据源未提供
Worked out on计算日期Cut-off used for the derived result.推导结果所使用的数据截止点。

Owner所有者 Business-cycle desk商业周期小组

Authority ceiling权限上限 Descriptive reading — this page cannot rank, size or trigger a trade描述性读数 — 本页不能排名、定仓或触发交易

Recession risk score衰退风险评分 Current当前有效
3.683.68Probability 0 1概率(0–1)

Higher more risk数值越高=风险越大

Details详情
Reference period参考期
Basis基准
Level水平值
Definition version定义版本
Definition v1, published 20 Oct 2026定义第1版,发布于2026年10月20日

Clocks and owner时钟与所有者

Reference period参考期The period the economic value describes.该经济数值所描述的期间。
Observed观察时间Native economic or market observation time.原生经济或市场观察时间。
Released发布时间Provider publication time.数据提供方的发布时间。
not carried by this source该数据源未提供
First knowable首次可知Earliest time this value was lawfully knowable to us.本系统可合法获知该数值的最早时间。
not carried by this source该数据源未提供
Collected采集时间When Mastermind received it.Mastermind 接收到该数据的时间。
not carried by this source该数据源未提供
Revised修订时间Provider correction or revision time.数据提供方的更正或修订时间。
not carried by this source该数据源未提供
Worked out on计算日期Cut-off used for the derived result.推导结果所使用的数据截止点。

Owner所有者 Recession-nowcast desk衰退即时预测小组

Authority ceiling权限上限 Descriptive reading — this page cannot rank, size or trigger a trade描述性读数 — 本页不能排名、定仓或触发交易

Sahm rule value萨姆规则读数 Current当前有效
00Pp百分点

Higher more risk数值越高=风险越大

Details详情
Reference period参考期
Basis基准
Level水平值
Definition version定义版本
Definition v1, published 20 Oct 2026定义第1版,发布于2026年10月20日

Clocks and owner时钟与所有者

Reference period参考期The period the economic value describes.该经济数值所描述的期间。
Observed观察时间Native economic or market observation time.原生经济或市场观察时间。
Released发布时间Provider publication time.数据提供方的发布时间。
not carried by this source该数据源未提供
First knowable首次可知Earliest time this value was lawfully knowable to us.本系统可合法获知该数值的最早时间。
not carried by this source该数据源未提供
Collected采集时间When Mastermind received it.Mastermind 接收到该数据的时间。
not carried by this source该数据源未提供
Revised修订时间Provider correction or revision time.数据提供方的更正或修订时间。
not carried by this source该数据源未提供
Worked out on计算日期Cut-off used for the derived result.推导结果所使用的数据截止点。

Owner所有者 Recession-nowcast desk衰退即时预测小组

Authority ceiling权限上限 Descriptive reading — this page cannot rank, size or trigger a trade描述性读数 — 本页不能排名、定仓或触发交易

Real income proxy yoy实际收入代理同比 Current当前有效
4.764.76Pct yoy同比百分比

Higher = stronger support数值越高=支持越强

Details详情
Reference period参考期
Basis基准
Level水平值
Definition version定义版本
Definition v1, published 20 Oct 2026定义第1版,发布于2026年10月20日

Clocks and owner时钟与所有者

Reference period参考期The period the economic value describes.该经济数值所描述的期间。
Observed观察时间Native economic or market observation time.原生经济或市场观察时间。
Released发布时间Provider publication time.数据提供方的发布时间。
not carried by this source该数据源未提供
First knowable首次可知Earliest time this value was lawfully knowable to us.本系统可合法获知该数值的最早时间。
not carried by this source该数据源未提供
Collected采集时间When Mastermind received it.Mastermind 接收到该数据的时间。
not carried by this source该数据源未提供
Revised修订时间Provider correction or revision time.数据提供方的更正或修订时间。
not carried by this source该数据源未提供
Worked out on计算日期Cut-off used for the derived result.推导结果所使用的数据截止点。

Owner所有者 Labor-nowcast desk劳动力即时预测小组

Authority ceiling权限上限 Descriptive reading — this page cannot rank, size or trigger a trade描述性读数 — 本页不能排名、定仓或触发交易

What's pushing it推动因素

Technical notes技术说明

Technical receipt for operators — series names, timestamps and file paths. Not the customer reading.给操作员的技术凭据 — 序列名、时间戳与文件路径。不是给客户看的读数。

Drivers驱动因子

Signed push toward each axis high side. A driver is a disclosed contribution, not a cause.各分项推向坐标轴高值一侧的有符号推力。驱动因子是已披露的贡献,而非因果。

Push推力

Growth momentum (6-month)增长动能(6个月)

Driver驱动因子 Reading读数 Unit单位 Push推力 Coverage覆盖
GDPNow growth nowcastGDPNow 实时增长预估 3.503.50 %% +6.56 Disagreement存在分歧
Weekly Economic Index growth每周经济指数增长 3.053.05 %% +5.81 Present已具备
Leading tier 6M momentum领先层六个月动能 0.530.53 Index pts指数点 +2.63 Present已具备
Coincident tier 6M momentum同步层六个月动能 −0.07−0.07 Index pts指数点 −0.28 Disagreement存在分歧

Strength and breadth of growth增长的强度与广度

Driver驱动因子 Reading读数 Unit单位 Push推力 Coverage覆盖
Leading tier diffusion (breadth)领先层扩散度(广度) 75.0075.00 %% +7.50 Present已具备
Coincident tier diffusion (breadth)同步层扩散度(广度) 100.00100.00 %% +17.50 Present已具备
Coincident tier index level同步层指数水平 36.2136.21 index指数 −2.76 Present已具备
Growth score增长评分 −0.07−0.07 z-scorez 值 −0.50 Present已具备

How this is calculated计算方法

Growth momentum (6-month)增长动能(6个月)64.7264.72

Axis method receipts坐标轴方法凭据

A composite may only be shown when its full composition law is disclosed.只有在完整披露构成法则的前提下,复合指标才可展示。

Direction方向
Deteriorating to accelerating从恶化到加速
Weights law权重法则
Weighted average of the parts that are present: Atlanta Fed nowcast 35%, weekly economic index 30%, leading-tier momentum 20%, current-activity momentum 15%.按到位分项的加权平均:亚特兰大联储即时预测 35%、周度经济指数 30%、领先动能 20%、当前活动动能 15%。
Transformation变换
Nowcast and weekly index are centred (2.0% and 1.5% annualised) and scaled so a 4-point swing fills half the scale. Leading and current-activity momentum are centred at zero with a 2-point half-swing. Only prior published readings are used.即时预测与周度指数以年化 2.0% 与 1.5% 为中心,4 个点对应半幅刻度。领先与当前活动动能以 0 为中心、2 个点为半幅。只使用已发布的先验读数。
Frequency alignment频率对齐
Mixed clocks: the nowcast updates near-daily inside the quarter, the weekly index on Fridays, and the activity tiers monthly with each leg's own publication lag.时钟不一:季内即时预测接近日更,周度指数周五发布,活动分层为月度并带各分项自身的发布滞后。
Revision behaviour修订行为
Recomputed each time the source publishes, using only readings that were already known then. A method change is reported as a break in comparability, never as a numeric move.每次数据源发布时用当时已知的读数重算。方法变更会标明为不可比,而不会写成数字位移。
Components present已具备分项
4 / minimum最少 2
Coverage floor覆盖下限
At least 50% of the parts must be present至少 50% 的分项必须到位
Definition version定义版本
Definition v1, published 20 Oct 2026定义第1版,发布于2026年10月20日
Authority ceiling权限上限
Descriptive reading — this page cannot rank, size or trigger a trade描述性读数 — 本页不能排名、定仓或触发交易
Component分项 Raw原始值 Standardized标准化值 Weight权重 Contribution贡献
GDPNow growth nowcastGDPNow 实时增长预估Growth-nowcast desk增长即时预测小组 3.503.50 68.74 0.35 +6.56
Weekly Economic Index growth每周经济指数增长Growth-nowcast desk增长即时预测小组 3.053.05 69.38 0.30 +5.81
Leading tier 6M momentum领先层六个月动能Business-cycle desk商业周期小组 0.530.53 63.13 0.20 +2.63
Coincident tier 6M momentum同步层六个月动能Business-cycle desk商业周期小组 −0.07−0.07 48.14 0.15 −0.28
Strength and breadth of growth增长的强度与广度71.7471.74

Axis method receipts坐标轴方法凭据

A composite may only be shown when its full composition law is disclosed.只有在完整披露构成法则的前提下,复合指标才可展示。

Direction方向
Weak to strong从弱到强
Weights law权重法则
Weighted average of the parts that are present: leading diffusion 30%, current-activity diffusion 35%, current-activity index level 20%, growth score 15%. The lagging tier is left out on purpose and published separately as confirmation.按到位分项的加权平均:领先扩散 30%、当前活动扩散 35%、当前活动指数水平 20%、增长评分 15%。滞后层有意排除,另行作为确认项发布。
Transformation变换
Diffusion and the current-activity index are already 0–100 and pass through. The growth score is centred at zero with a 1-point half-swing.扩散与当前活动指数已是 0–100,直接采用。增长评分以 0 为中心、1 个点为半幅。
Frequency alignment频率对齐
Monthly activity-tier clocks with each leg's publication lag. The growth score shares the regime-read cadence.活动分层为月度,并带各分项发布滞后。增长评分与体制读数同一节奏。
Revision behaviour修订行为
Recomputed each time the source publishes, using only readings that were already known then. A method change is reported as a break in comparability, never as a numeric move.每次数据源发布时用当时已知的读数重算。方法变更会标明为不可比,而不会写成数字位移。
Components present已具备分项
4 / minimum最少 2
Coverage floor覆盖下限
At least 50% of the parts must be present至少 50% 的分项必须到位
Definition version定义版本
Definition v1, published 20 Oct 2026定义第1版,发布于2026年10月20日
Authority ceiling权限上限
Descriptive reading — this page cannot rank, size or trigger a trade描述性读数 — 本页不能排名、定仓或触发交易
Component分项 Raw原始值 Standardized标准化值 Weight权重 Contribution贡献
Leading tier diffusion (breadth)领先层扩散度(广度)Business-cycle desk商业周期小组 75.0075.00 75.00 0.30 +7.50
Coincident tier diffusion (breadth)同步层扩散度(广度)Business-cycle desk商业周期小组 100.00100.00 100.00 0.35 +17.50
Coincident tier index level同步层指数水平Business-cycle desk商业周期小组 36.2136.21 36.21 0.20 −2.76
Growth score增长评分Growth-score desk增长评分小组 −0.07−0.07 46.65 0.15 −0.50

Component histories分项历史

Owner projections with per-series clocks, units, basis and revision behaviour.所有者投影序列,附各序列的时钟、单位、基准与修订行为。
Insufficient history历史数据不足

No chart yet — we don't have enough history for this one.暂无图表 — 该项历史数据不足。

Technical notes技术说明

Technical receipt for operators — series names, timestamps and file paths. Not the customer reading.给操作员的技术凭据 — 序列名、时间戳与文件路径。不是给客户看的读数。

This snapshot publishes no chart-ready history. An empty chart frame would read as a flat line at zero, so none is drawn.本快照未发布可绘图的历史序列。空白图框会被误读为零值水平线,因此不予绘制。

Freshness新鲜度

How this reading was revised本读数如何被修订

Technical notes技术说明

Technical receipt for operators — series names, timestamps and file paths. Not the customer reading.给操作员的技术凭据 — 序列名、时间戳与文件路径。不是给客户看的读数。

Correction and method lineage更正与方法沿革

Correction state更正状态
No correction recorded无更正记录
Predecessor generation前一代产物
A prior published generation is on file.已有上一已发布代次存档。
Changed fingerprints已变更指纹
—
Hysteresis滞回
A 5-point hold-back band is configured but was not needed this reading.已配置 5 点滞回带,但本读数未用到。

This is a new observation for a later reference period, not a revision of the prior print. This print is as of 20 Oct 2026; the predecessor is as of 19 Oct 2026.这是较晚参考期的新观察,不是对上一期读数的修订。本期截至2026年10月20日;上一期截至2026年10月19日。

Not open yet尚未开放

Technical notes技术说明

Technical receipt for operators — series names, timestamps and file paths. Not the customer reading.给操作员的技术凭据 — 序列名、时间戳与文件路径。不是给客户看的读数。

Declared but not offered已声明但尚未开放

These are named here rather than shown as tabs. A tab that cannot do its job is a dead destination.这些能力在此列出,而非以标签页形式呈现。无法履行职责的标签页就是一个死入口。

Scenario情景

No scenario execution is published for this workspace.本工作区尚未发布情景推演能力。

Assumption vocabulary declared (not executable)已声明的假设变量词表(尚不可执行)
  • GDPNow growthGDPNow 增长 Pct saar年化百分比 −6.00 … 10.00 · step步长 0.25
  • Initial claims (4wk avg)初次申请(4周均值) count数量 150,000.0 … 500,000.0 · step步长 5,000.0
  • Industrial production YoY工业生产同比 Pct yoy同比百分比 −10.00 … 10.00 · step步长 0.25
  • Real income growth实际收入增长 Pct yoy同比百分比 −10.00 … 10.00 · step步长 0.25
  • Financial conditions shock金融条件冲击 index指数 −3.00 … 3.00 · step步长 0.10

Alerts预警

No alert service can create, evaluate or delete these conditions yet.尚无服务能够创建、评估或删除这些预警条件。

Eligible conditions declared (not offered)已声明的可用条件(尚未开放)
  • Quadrant change象限变化 Named state transition状态切换
  • Broad leading rollover领先指标广泛转向 Boundary approach接近分界
  • Coincident confirmation同步指标确认 Component shock分项冲击
  • Source stale or failed数据源过期或失败 Source stale or failed数据源过期或失败
  • Material source revision数据源重大修订 Material source revision数据源重大修订
  • Nowcast / hard-data contradiction实时预估/硬数据矛盾 Contradiction appears or resolves矛盾出现或消解