JPM JPM US Market Intell

IDEAS & INSIGHTS – IN BRIEF • MKT UPDATES – Thoughts on US/Iran, macro data (ISM-Srvcs and ADP), 2x ideas from ETF trading desk. • DESK COMMENTARY – Trading desk views on healthcare flow, earnings (LLY, SHOP, Wayfair) and memory spot price. • DAILY EARNINGS MACRO READ-THROUGH – Disney commented on US vs. Asia consumer health. • US MKT INTEL VIEW – Tactically Bullish and we update the Monetization Menu

AFTERNOON UPDATES (NEWS LINKS) • SPX -0.2%, NDX -0.8%, RTY -0.6%. WTI -92bps at $75.07, NatGas -37bps to $2.67, UK NatGas -423bps to £1.3100, Gold +413bps to $4,247, Silver +417bps to $62.04, 10Y @ 4.613%, and VIX @ 15.81. • US: Stocks closed lower; Tech lagged. The session was mostly quiet from a macro headlines perspective, with single-stock/earnings headlines dominating the tape. GOOG/L fell 4% after the departure of a top AI scientist; MSFT and AMZN fell 1%. Semis had a 3.2% pullback with underperformance from AMD (-7%) and SNDK (-5%). Momentum fell 0.3% with both the long and short leg moving lower today. The most notable price action was in precious metals: gold and silver were both up 4% today across both the Asia session and the US trading hours. • EU/UK: Major markets closed mixed; Spain and UK led, while Germany lagged. Following a few days of de-escalation in the Middle East, we saw the ceasefire and ME escalation shorts baskets outperform today. Semis fell 1.9% after a 13% rally over the past 5 days. Novo declined 4.7% after a sales miss in the new weight-loss pill. UKX +0.1%, SX5E -0.1%, SXXP +0.0%, DAX - 0.3%.

CATALYSTS TOMORROW (FULL WEEK CALENDAR)

• US MACRO DATA TOMORROW: Challenger Job Cuts at 5.30am ET. Nonfarm Productivity and Unit Labor Costs at 8.30am ET. Initial/Continuing Jobless Claims at 8.30am ET. Wholesale Trade Sales and Inventories (Revision) at 10am ET. • US EARNINGS TOMORROW: o BMO: ATI, BDX, CART, CECO, CEG, COLD, COP, DDOG, EPAM, EVH, FISV, FOUR, FOXA, FUN, FWONA, HTZ, HWM, INSM, IOVA, KDP, KVUE, LESL, LNG, LNTH, MTSI, NFBK, OPTU, OSCR, PH, PLNT, PTON, QBTS, QSR, RDW, RL, RXO, SAFT, SGI, TECH, TMHC, TRGP, TRMB, U, UMAC, USFD, UWMC, VTRS, WBD, WRBY, ZTS, VIAV, VRRM, WDC, XYZ, ZG o AMC: AAOI, ABNB, AIG, AKAM, BMRN, CABO, CENX, CYTK, DKNG, FIVN, FROG, GRPN, HALO, KGS, KRMN, LYFT, MARA, MCHP, MNST, MP, NET, NTRA, ONTO, OUST, PCT, RGTI, RKT, RMD, ROKU, RSG, SARO, SG, SHAZ, TTD, TWLO, TXG, TXRH, WSC • GLOBAL MACRO DATA TOMORROW: (Germany) Factory Orders at 2am ET. (Eurozone) Retail Sales at 5am ET. (Japan) Household Spending at 7.30pm ET. (China) Foreign Reserves, Exports, Imports, Trade Balance at 8.30pm ET.

JPM MARKET INTEL EQUITY & MACRO NARRATIVE

TODAY • US/IRAN – A relatively quiet day on Iran headlines with the biggest focus being Iran and Oman’s deal on reopening Hormuz; the joint statement is still under review for the final drafting stage. However, details of this deal and the progress around US-Iran MOU remain unclear. After a few days of volatile decline, oil price actions were relatively muted today (WTI -1.0% to $75.04). • MACRO DATA – Overall, macro data today was negative on the margin. We started with a weaker-than-expected ADP print (lowest since January, but JPM Econ reminded us that the average absolute error between ADP and BLS was 64k). For the ISM-Srvcs, it missed the headline expectation with Prices Paid increasing, despite still strong momentum in growth and Business Activity. o US MKT INTEL ON ISM-SRVCS (we sent below in some IB chats immediately after the release) – This print is mixed. THE BAD - It missed all expectations with inflation inputs increasing. THE GOOD – (i) in absolute terms, it showed a MoM increase supporting the narrative on strong US growth. (ii) while inflation risks remain, the number of cmdty inputs which saw price declines increased. (iii) Biz Activity had its highest reading since May