JPM JPM US Market Intell

IDEAS & INSIGHTS – IN BRIEF • MKT UPDATES – Thoughts on tech-led rally, US/Iran; Preview for August refunding and ISM- Srvcs. • DESK COMMENTARY – Trading desk views on Consumer and Tech. • DAILY EARNINGS MACRO READ-THROUGH – CAT on order demand; concerning comments on inflationary pressure/lower-income consumers from MCD and KMB. • US MKT INTEL VIEW – Tactically Bullish and we update the Monetization Menu • TRADING DESK CALL TMRW – Flows, Spreads, & CDS: Connecting the Dots on Recent Tech Vol. Speakers include John Schlegel (Global Head, Positioning Intel), Brian Heavey (Equity Trading), Josh Meyers / Mark Schilsky (TMT Spec Sales), Tarek Hamid, (Head, North America Credit Research), Erica Spear (US TMT Credit Research), Bram Kaplan (Head, Equity Derivatives Strategy), and Scott Reeder (TMT CDS Trading). Weds at 11am ET / 16h UK. Please register here.

AFTERNOON UPDATES (NEWS LINKS) • SPX +1.8%, NDX +3.3%, RTY +1.8%. WTI -63bps at $75.29, NatGas +7bps to $2.68, UK NatGas -301bps to £1.3678, Gold -2bps to $4,077, Silver -3bps to $59.54, 10Y @ 4.613%, and VIX @ 16.50. • US: Full risk-on rally across US markets, led by Tech. All of NDX, SPX and RTY finished the day with over 1.8% gains. Today’s rally was broad across multiple sectors (except for Energy). Tech was the clear winner today, with Semis leading with a 7.0% gain. AI Memory, Optics and Infra all increased over 5% today. On the other hand, short squeezing continued today with High Short Interest and Software both adding over 3%. Reopening trades (Housing, Airlines) also outperformed due to declines in both oil prices (WTI -5%) and bond yields. 2y, 5y, 10y and 30y were down 5bp, 5bp, 6bp and 5bp respectively. • EU/UK: Major markets closed higher, led by Italy, but underperformed US markets. Similar to the US trading session, Semis, Momentum Long, Cyclicals and Software were among the top

performing baskets. Beta added 1.4%, representing a 1.2z move. UKX +0.2%, SX5E +0.9%, SXXP +0.7%, DAX +0.8%.

CATALYSTS TOMORROW (FULL WEEK CALENDAR) • US MACRO DATA TOMORROW: Mortgage Applications at 7am ET. ADP Employment Change at 8.15am ET. PMI-Srvcs and PMI-Composite (Revision) at 9.45am ET. ISM-Srvcs (New Orders/Employment/Prices Paid) at 10am ET.s • US EARNINGS TOMORROW: o BMO: AVNS, BBIO, BWA, CDW, CG, COR, CRCL, CRL, CVS, DIS, DMRA, DT, ELAN, FLUT, FRPT, GFS, GLXY, GOSS, GPN, IRM, KD, KHC, LLY, MDLN, OC, PODD, PSNL, PSX, RIOT, RRX, SHAK, SN, SYRE, UBER, UTZ, VERA, VSH, WULF, ZBH o AMC: ALB, ALL, APP, ARRY, AXON, BROS, CF, CGNX, CHYM, CPAY, DASH, DAVE, DUOL, EBAY, EFR, ELF, EOG, ETSY, EXPE, FIG, FLNC, FWRD, HONA, HST, HUBS, IONQ, JOBY, LEU, MCK, MET, MGY, MKSI, MSI, MTDR, O, OXY, RUN, RVMD, SEI, SITM, SM, SMR, SNDK, SNEX, SOLV, SRPT, SYM, TLN, TROX, TTMI, VIAV, VRRM, WDC, XYZ, ZG • GLOBAL MACRO DATA TOMORROW: (Eurozone) PMIs (Revision) at 4am ET. (UK) Official Reserves Changes at 4.30am ET. (Eurozone) PPI at 5am ET. (Japan) Japan Buying Foreign Bonds at 7.50pm ET.

JPM MARKET INTEL EQUITY & MACRO NARRATIVE

TODAY • TECH-LED RALLY – Semis and Software added 7.0% and 3.7%, respectively. After the negative correlation with YTD, the positive trend in both Semis and Software over the past two days was worth noting. On software particularly, while Q2 earnings so far did ease the AI vulnerability narrative, the rebound in gross flows and stretched bearish positioning both contributed to recent price action. From Positioning Intel’s note (here) last Friday “US HF [July] de-grossing is more negative than every year except 2020 and 2022, and the sharp 3-day de- gross episode was comparable to late-Jan ’21 and mid-Nov ’22. Post de-grossing, flows may stay choppy near-term—but seasonals suggest a rebound in gross flows: After large de-grossing episodes, gross flows have historically been uneven (not an immediate re-gross), yet seasonal trends often point to more consistent re-grossing into mid-September.”