JPM US Market Intelligence | Morning Briefing

• MKT THOUGHTS – assessing the tactical setup, reiterating our Tactically Cautious / Neutral view, analyzing what would flip us Bullish or Bearish

• JAY BARRY’S POST-FED THOUGHTS

• ADD’L FED THOUGHTS – color from Patrick Locke, Steve Bruner, and Mkt Intel

• NEW NIKOS – He looks are the Treasuries impact from Credit issuance

• WALL OF WORRY – looking at the Fed, AI, and SoH-induced inflation

• US MKT INTEL VIEW – We maintain our Tactically Cautious / Neutral view into the Fed, plus we update the Monetization Menu

JPM MARKET INTEL MORNING UPDATES

• SPX +0.8%, NDX +1.1%, RTY +0.8%. WTI -40bps at $102.02, NatGas +7bps to $2.89, UK NatGas -59bps to £1.9231, Gold +102bps to $4,307, Silver +152bps to $63.94, 10Y @ 4.988%, and VIX @ 16.04.

• US: Futures are higher, led by Tech, as bond yields are down 2-4bp; the curve is bull steepening with USD flat. Bond seem to be reacting positively more so to oil than to Warsh. Cmdtys are mixed with crude lower, Precious and Base higher, but Ags lower. In Eqys, Tech is leading with Semis, Memory, Mag7, and Software all higher; look for Momentum to

continue its rebound today. Today is setting up to be an Everything Rally led by the AI and Debasement themes; in Tech seeing Semis, Software, and Mag7 all rallying is intriguing and something to watch to see if fundamental buyers are returning to Mag7 / Software and if so, then what becomes the funding short for Semis? Today’s macro data focus is on jobless data though do not expect the data to be market moving.

• EU/UK: Major markets are all higher as the region benefits from some post-Fed clarity, though regional yields are higher with curves flattening. Our top D1 baskets include Gold, Software, AI Power, and Semis with Recent 52-wk Lows, Ceasefire plays, and Defense among the worst. Further, Momentum / Size / Cyclicals are leading with ST Momentum / Stagflation lagging. APAC session was positive with Japan / Taiwan / Australia leading. UKX +0.5%, SX5E +0.6%, SXXP +0.5%, DAX +0.6%. CSI -0.4%, HSI -0.4%, NKY +0.3%, ASX +0.4%, KOSPI -0.0%.

• US MACRO DATA: Philly Fed Business Outlook, Initial/Continuing Jobless Claims, Housing Starts and Building Permits at 8.30am ET. Pending Home Sales at 10am ET.

• GLOBAL MACRO DATA: (Eurozone) CPI/PPI (revision) at 5am ET. (UK) Bank of England Bank Rate at 7am ET. (UK) GfK Consumer Confidence at 7.01pm ET. (Japan) CPI/PPI at 7.30pm ET.

JPM MARKET INTEL EQUITY & MACRO NARRATIVE

The market reacted to a hawkish Warsh press conference, but it reminds me of Jackson Hole, a speech that he referenced multiple times. Post-Jackson Hole, we wrote, “ I do not think we know anything more about what he is thinking in terms of rates today than we did yesterday. If inflation is too high, he has had 2x chances to attempt to hike and failed to do so. If inflation is trending lower, which contradicts much of his speech, then the Fed holds.”