JPM US Market Intelligence Morning Briefing Aug 6

IDEAS & INSIGHTS – IN BRIEF • MKT THOUGHTS – Thoughts on US/Iran, views from International Mkt Intel on gold//silver, macro data and 2x ideas from the ETF trading desk. • NEW NIKOS – TMT Equity Sector and Multi Strat hedge funds at the center of July’s deleveraging • US MKT INTEL VIEW – Tactically Bullish and we update the Monetization Menu • INTERNATIONAL MARKET INTEL – July monthly recap is here.

JPM MARKET INTEL MORNING UPDATES • SPX +0.2%, NDX -0.4%, RTY +0.2%. WTI +19bps at $75.36, NatGas -41bps to $2.68, UK NatGas +435bps to £1.3361, Gold +66bps to $4,275, Silver -32bps to $61.85, 10Y @ 4.625%, and VIX @ 15.94. • US: Futures are mixed; NDX lagged behind. Pre-market, Mag 7 stocks are mostly mixed to positive; AAPL +1.0% and GOOG/L +0.7% are among the outperformers. Bond yields are 1-2bp higher. Commodity prices were mostly higher: base metals are all higher this morning; gold +0.6%, while silver -0.4%. Overnight, not many incremental updates on US/Iran, with investors waiting for the details of the Iran/Oman deal around the Strait of Hormuz. • EU/UK: Major markets are higher. Thematically, EU Defence, Renewables, Luxury and Most Shorts are among the top performing baskets. Meanwhile Semi lagged following the overnight weakness from Asia Semis/Memory. UKX +0.3%, SX5E +0.6%, SXXP +0.5%, DAX +0.2%.

CATALYSTS TODAY (WEEK AHEAD) • US MACRO DATA: Challenger Job Cuts at 5.30am ET. Nonfarm Productivity and Unit Labor Costs at 8.30am ET. Initial/Continuing Jobless Claims at 8.30am ET. Wholesale Trade Sales and Inventories (Revision) at 10am ET. • US EARNINGS: o BMO: ATI, BDX, CART, CECO, CEG, COLD, COP, DDOG, EPAM, EVH, FISV, FOUR, FOXA, FUN, FWONA, HTZ, HWM, INSM, IOVA, KDP, KVUE, LESL, LNG, LNTH, MTSI, NFBK,

OPTU, OSCR, PH, PLNT, PTON, QBTS, QSR, RDW, RL, RXO, SAFT, SGI, TECH, TMHC, TRGP, TRMB, U, UMAC, USFD, UWMC, VTRS, WBD, WRBY, ZTS, VIAV, VRRM, WDC, XYZ, ZG o AMC: AAOI, ABNB, AIG, AKAM, BMRN, CABO, CENX, CYTK, DKNG, FIVN, FROG, GRPN, HALO, KGS, KRMN, LYFT, MARA, MCHP, MNST, MP, NET, NTRA, ONTO, OUST, PCT, RGTI, RKT, RMD, ROKU, RSG, SARO, SG, SHAZ, TTD, TWLO, TXG, TXRH, WSC • GLOBAL MACRO DATA: (Germany) Factory Orders at 2am ET. (Eurozone) Retail Sales at 5am ET. (Japan) Household Spending at 7.30pm ET. (China) Foreign Reserves, Exports, Imports, Trade Balance at 8.30pm ET.

JPM MARKET INTEL EQUITY & MACRO NARRATIVE Tech took a breather yesterday following the sharp rally since last Friday. The overnight session was highlighted by weakness across the Asia AI theme. On the macro side, news flow around US/Iran has been largely quiet since Tuesday evening, but macro data yesterday was slightly negative at the margin.

• US/IRAN – Yesterday was a relatively quiet day on Iran headlines with the biggest focus being Iran and Oman’s deal on reopening Hormuz; the joint statement is still under review for the final drafting stage. However, details of this deal and the progress around US-Iran MOU remain unclear. After a few days of volatile decline, oil price actions were relatively muted today (WTI -1.0% to $75.04). • INTERNATIONAL MKT INTEL ON GOLD – we [Federico and Victoria] have liked playing this via 3– 6m call spreads/ratios. Commodities desk is busy, with a lot of topside interest coming through. Risk reversal back into positive territory; CB buying resumes (Bank of Korea returned after a 13y pause); China gold consumption increased in H1; technical levels broken (50dma). 4500 is the level to watch. • MACRO DATA – Overall, macro data yesterday was negative on the margin. We started with a weaker-than-expected ADP print (lowest since January, but JPM Econ reminded us that the average absolute error between ADP and BLS was 64k). For the ISM-Srvcs, it missed the headline expectation with Prices Paid increasing, despite still strong momentum in growth and Business Activity. o US MKT INTEL ON ISM-SRVCS (we sent below in some IB chats immediately after the release) – This print is mixed. THE BAD - It missed all expectations with inflation inputs increasing. THE GOOD – (i) in absolute terms, it showed a MoM increase supporting the narrative on strong US growth. (ii) while inflation risks remain, the number of cmdty inputs which saw…