JPM US Market Intelligence | Morning Briefing

• LAST WEEK – a review of price action and looking at variables influencing the Equity market’s Wall of Worry

• US MKT INTEL VIEW – Tactically Cautious / Neutral with an updated Monetization Menu. We discuss what would make us Bullish vs. Bearish.

• ADDITIONAL THOUGHTS – Cross-Asset Views & Monetization, Fedspeak, Macro Update, Tech Trades, Trump / Xi Meeting, and US / Iran

• POSITIONING INTELLIGENCE – Weekly Wrap | Potential for US Crowding to Rebound Soon and Tactical EU Upside

JPM MARKET INTEL MORNING UPDATES

• SPX +0.6%, NDX +1.1%, RTY +0.5%. WTI -171bps at $98.58, NatGas -127bps to $2.88, UK NatGas -462bps to £1.8900, Gold -62bps to $4,351, Silver -8bps to $66.21, 10Y @ 4.959%, and VIX @ 14.95.

• US: Futures are higher driven by Trump / Xi optimism around AI, Middle East, and trade with MidEast kinetic headlines over the weekend reflecting a pause to escalation. WTI is below $100, fuel prices lower, bond yields lower as the yield curve bull flattens, with a flat USD. This is bidding up risk assets with Equities leading. Pre-mkt, Tech is leading with broad-based strength across Semis, Memory, and Mag7 and Software is higher but lagging

SPX / NDX futs. Cyclicals ex-Energy are leading Defensives with the AI theme boosting Tech / Industrials within Cyclicals. Within Defensives, both HC and Staples have pockets of strength as today looks like a broad-based rally in both the SPX and within Tech. The Fed’s Goolsbee speaks ~6.30am with previous speakers Fri / Sun offering a hawkish view which reiterates Warsh’s key points. Given the macro and earnings strength, the market may be underpricing the number of hikes through YE27.

• EU/UK: Major markets are all higher led by Italy / SX5E with UK / Smidcaps lagging. Bond yields are lower across the region with most curves bull flattening following a positive APAC session that showed a broad rally across the region. Thematically, Semis, AI themes, and LT Momentum Longs are among the top plays with negative performance seen in Energy and German Domestic plays. Beta / Momentum / Cyclicals are leading with Value / Quality lagging. UKX +0.7%, SX5E +1.3%, SXXP +0.9%, DAX +1.0%. CSI +0.7%, HSI +1.2%, NKY +1.4%, ASX +0.0%, KOSPI +1.6%.

• US MACRO DATA: Fed’s Goolsbee Speaks at 6.30am ET. Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index at 8.30am ET.

JPM MARKET INTEL EQUITY & MACRO NARRATIVE

SPX finished the week -8bp, SPW -126bp, NDX +94bp, and RTY -150bp with the 10Y yield increasing 2.9bp as the yield curve flattened. 2Y yield +11.8bp, 5Y yield +7.4bp, and 30Y - 2.7bp. WTI was +$0.25 to $100.30, +25bp. US outperformed most DM markets ex-Japan. EM-APAC outperformed led by China, Korea, and Taiwan, though Latam underperformed.