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Microsoft · Tech

MSFT US listed · USD美股 · 美元

Microsoft Corporation is an American multinational technology company headquartered in Redmond, Washington.Microsoft Corporation 是一家美国跨国科技公司,总部位于华盛顿州雷德蒙德。

Mega cap超大盘 · $3835B Tech Dow 30道琼斯30 Quality compounder优质复利股
$516.17
+$18.24 · +3.66%
52w low52周低 $349high高 $549
Neutral — no clear edge中性 — 无明显优势 The daily turn is in off a real pullback, but the cycle count is stretched well past its usual window — so this is an UNCONFIRMED new cycle, not a fresh low…日线已在一次真实回调后转向,但周期天数已远超通常窗口——因此这是未确认的新周期,尚非全新低点。请在确认后买入(更高的低点 + 周线转向),而非此处。 Some sources unavailable部分来源不可用 As of 2026-09-28截至 2026-09-28
Company intelligence公司情报

The latest call, in context把最新财报放回历史脉络

A synthesized event record across management commentary and recorded metrics. Read as context; verify exact wording in the transcript before relying.综合管理层表述与记录指标形成事件档案。仅供参考;使用前请在电话会原文中核对准确措辞。

Checking latest record正在检查最新记录

Live company record实时公司记录

JavaScript loads the source-bounded event record here. Open Terminal if the live module does not start.JavaScript 会在此加载受来源约束的事件记录。如实时模块未启动,请打开终端。

Continue with full transcript history继续查看完整电话会历史 ↗

Price chart价格图表

daily · interactive日线 · 可交互 Open in Terminal打开终端 ↗
Loading chart…图表加载中…
The interactive chart could not load here.互动图表暂时无法在此加载。 Open the live chart in Terminal在终端中打开实时图表 ↗
Candles, volume and moving averages — pan and zoom inside the chart.蜡烛图、成交量与均线 — 图内可缩放拖动。 MMastermind Terminal — live & interactiveMastermind 终端 — 实时互动 ↗

Security state证券状态

8 panels8 个面板

The panels below — what each one rests on, and how old it is. Use it to check the rest of the page. Not a buy or sell signal, and never blended into a score.以下面板 — 每项的依据来源与时效。可用于核对本页其余内容。不构成买卖信号,也不会合并为任何评分。

Overview概览Some sources unavailable部分来源不可用

What this security looks like right now, at a glance.这只证券当前状况的一目了然总览。

Ladder state: TURN SIGNALED (up).阶梯状态:TURN SIGNALED(上行)。

Reads available可用读数 1 of 2 required reads are current.2 项必需读数中,1 项为当前数据。 2 of 5 optional reads are current.5 项可选读数中,2 项为当前数据。
Your position你的持仓This does not apply to you right now.这暂不适用于你。

Where it stands当前位置Current当前

Ladder state: TURN SIGNALED (up).阶梯状态:TURN SIGNALED(上行)。

Direction方向pointing up向上

What changed有何变化Not available暂不可用

No current earnings-change event is published for this security yet.该证券当前尚无已发布的财报变动事件。

The owner of this read returned nothing. No substitute value is shown.该读数的负责来源没有返回结果,此处不使用任何替代数值。

Opportunity context机会背景Current当前

Some context reads are missing部分背景读数缺失

The rest of the page is unaffected: no rank, score or stand-in value is put where a missing read would go.本页其余内容不受影响:缺失的读数不会被任何排名、评分或替代数值填补。

Reads behind this构成这项的读数
Prophet outlookProphet 前瞻Not available暂不可用Entry read入场读数Current当前Priced-in read定价程度读数Not covered未覆盖Mispricing read错价读数Not covered未覆盖

What could go wrong风险Current当前

No checks failed无未通过的检查

What to watch next接下来关注Not available暂不可用

Not available暂不可用

The owner of this read returned nothing. No substitute value is shown.该读数的负责来源没有返回结果,此处不使用任何替代数值。

Evidence证据 3 current当前2 not available暂不可用 counted here本页统计

Owner & model receipts所有者与模型凭证Identity confirmed身份已确认

Who read this, when, and the exact fingerprint of what was read.谁读取了这些数据、何时读取,以及所读内容的确切指纹。

R1 passed通过

This security record exists and has not been replaced.该证券记录存在,且未被替换。

R2 passed通过

This security is tied to its resolved issuer.该证券已绑定到已解析的发行主体。

R3 passed通过

Exactly one active issuer record binds this company and its identifier.恰好一条有效的发行主体记录绑定了该公司及其识别码。

R4 passed通过

This issuer currently has exactly this one security.该发行主体当前仅有这一只证券。

R5 passed通过

The listing identifier maps back to this same security.上市标识可回映射到同一只证券。

R6 passed通过

No issuer or security migration is on file for this name.该名称没有发行主体或证券迁移记录。

R7 passed通过

Workspace events and disclosures, when present, bind to the same company identifier.若有工作区,其事件与披露均绑定同一公司识别码。

R8 passed通过

The master company identifier matches the owner read; if a workspace is present, it agrees too.主数据中的公司识别码与所有者读数一致;若有工作区,工作区亦一致。

R9 not checked未核对

No workspace listing was available to compare this cycle.本周期没有可比对的工作区上市记录。

Generated生成时间2026-09-29 03:32Z
Compiled编排时间2026-09-29 03:32Z
Content fingerprint内容指纹3b69b7d7d7ac945d9c3f705dac911888c078a2d7f93856b08934284cb0880e05

Technicals技术面

daily bars日线数据 · 2026-09-28
MA Buy (21)Bollinger Breakout UpShort-term Rising TrendStrong 1-Day Move Flag
Momentum (RSI 14)动量(RSI 14) 63
Elevated偏高
vs 50-day average相对50日均线 +8.6% above上方 Uptrend intact趋势完好
vs 200-day average相对200日均线 +19.9% above上方 Long trend up长期向上
Trend strength (ADX)趋势强度(ADX) 32 Strong trend趋势强劲
Volatility波动率 52th percentile第52百分位
These readings feed the stance at the top — one source per number, refreshed nightly.以上读数构成页首的引擎立场 — 每个数字只有一个来源,每晚更新。

Earnings财务业绩

next report下次财报 2026-11-04
37
days to go天后公布

Estimates being raised — 22 analysts预期上调 — 22 位分析师

Beat expectations 4 quarters in a row连续 4 季度超预期

+12.6% Jun 2026
+4.9% Mar 2026
+6.7% Dec 2025
+13.2% Sep 2025

EPS surprise vs consensus, last quarters每股收益相对预期的超预期幅度(近几个季度) · average平均 9.3%

Valuation估值

Roughly fair vs sector相对行业估值合理
Multiple指标MSFT Sector median行业中位Cheaper than相对便宜
P/E (trailing)市盈率(历史) 37.66x 41.39 53%
P/E (forward)市盈率(预测) 21.8x — —
P/B市净率 9.81x 5.73 30%
P/S市销率 13.61x 4.81 16%
Earnings yield盈利收益率 2.66% 1.96 60%
FCF yield自由现金流收益率 1.87% 3.03 35%
Shareholder yield股东收益率 1.11% 2.05 34%
EV/EBITDA企业价值/EBITDA 25.56x 27.85 53%
P/FCF市值/自由现金流 53.55x 29.43 28%
"Cheaper than" = share of sector peers trading richer on that multiple.「相对便宜」= 行业中该指标估值更高的同行占比。

Financials财务数据

fiscal years财年
Revenue营业收入 $281.7B2025
20202025
5-yr growth5年复合增速 14.5%
Earnings per share每股收益 $13.642025
20202025
5-yr growth5年复合增速 18.8%
Free cash flow自由现金流 $71.6B2025
20202025
Gross margin毛利率
68.8%
Operating margin营业利润率
45.6%
Net margin净利率
36.1%
FCF margin自由现金流利润率
48.3%
Balance-sheet quality财务体质 5/9 Bankruptcy risk: safe zone破产风险:安全区 Return on equity股本回报率 26% Clean稳健

Leverage杠杆

Net debt / EBITDA净债务/EBITDA0.09
Current ratio流动比率1.35

Capital allocation资本配置

Buybacks (TTM)回购(TTM)$18.4B
Stock-based comp股权薪酬$12.0B
Share count change (1y)股数变化(1年)-0.1%

Debt coming due到期债务

SEC filingsSEC 文件

Debt schedule not loaded yet.到期债务尚未加载。

This panel is still catching up to the SEC filings for this listing. Check back soon — nothing is being estimated in its place.本面板仍在同步该证券的 SEC 文件,请稍后再查看;此处不作任何估算替代。

A cash-flow scenario is unavailable until the filing inputs are verified.报告数据核实前,现金流情景暂不可用。

Capital-need coverage is not available for this issuer yet.该发行人的资本需求覆盖信息暂不可用。

Reported facts remain separate from the cash-flow scenario until identity and filing provenance are confirmed.在确认身份与报告来源之前,已披露事实与现金流情景保持分离。

Research context only — reported figures from SEC filings, not a rating, a signal or investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 数据摘自 SEC 文件披露口径,不构成评级、信号或投资建议。

Why is it moving为何波动

6 checks · nightly六项检查 · 每晚
News新闻 4 recent stories — mixed4 篇最新报道,多空参半
Sector / Theme行业/主题 Magnificent Seven theme — #2 of 49 themes「七巨头」主题 — 49 个主题中第 2 位
Macro宏观 Rate risk runs through its market / growth beta, not a distinct duration leg.其利率风险通过市场/成长beta体现,并无独立的久期暴露。
Positioning持仓 Insider cluster activity内部人集中交易
Technical技术面 MSFT took relative-strength leadershipMSFT 取得相对强弱领先

Options positioning期权持仓

as of last close截至上一收盘

Market makers are net long gamma — price pinned near current level做市商净持有正伽玛,价格倾向于在当前水平附近震荡

Expected daily move预期日波动
±1.98%
Expected weekly move预期周波动
±4.43%
IV rankIV历史分位
78%
Gamma flip伽玛翻转位
$384
25d risk reversal25d风险逆转
-0.1%

Flow:资金流向: $391M premium traded; 0% 0DTE; 158 fresh positions; P/C 0.53; ~leans bullish (direction approx)成交权利金 $391M;0DTE占0%;158个新建仓;看跌看涨比 0.53;≈偏看涨(方向近似)

Skew: balanced偏斜:balanced
Call and put walls are plotted on the Trade levels ladder →看涨/看跌期权墙已标注在「交易点位」阶梯上 →

Ownership & smart money持仓与聪明钱

13F

Insider activity:内部人动向: -$13.6M net (1 buyers, 4 sellers)-$13.6M 净值(1 买家,4 卖家)

Concentrated ownership集中持仓

Fund基金Grade评级 Latest move最新动作% of book组合占比As of截至
AltaRock Partners C Adding加仓 20.5% 2026-06-30
Coatue Management A Adding加仓 2.2% 2026-06-30
Altimeter Capital A Holding持有 4.8% 2026-06-30
Tiger Global (Coleman) B Holding持有 3.5% 2026-06-30
Corvex Management A Holding持有 1.5% 2026-06-30
Giverny Capital C Holding持有 0.0% 2026-06-30
Polen Capital Management C trimtrim 6.7% 2026-06-30
AKO Capital C trimtrim 5.5% 2026-06-30

Signal history信号历史

engine events引擎事件
NEARING A HIGH → BOTTOMING接近高点 → 筑底中 BUY SETUP. A new cycle low likely formed 24 day(s) ago (2026-08-21 @ 483.24): swing low in, price back above the 10-day average — but the weekly timeframe hasn't turned yet, so conviction is partial买入预备。新的周期低点可能已在 24 天前形成 (2026-08-21 @ 483.24):摆动低点已现,价格重新站上 10 日均线——但周线周期尚未转向,因此信心仅为部分
Sep 25, 2026
MSFT took relative-strength leadershipMSFT 取得相对强弱领先
Relative strength vs SPY crossed above the 90th percentile of the last 90 days — leadership tends to persist. $516.17.相对标普500的强弱上穿近90日的第90百分位 — 领先往往延续。$516.17。
Sep 24, 2026
BOTTOMING → NEARING A HIGH筑底中 → 接近高点
TAKE PROFITS止盈
Sep 21, 2026
BOTTOMING → NEARING A HIGH筑底中 → 接近高点
TAKE PROFITS止盈
Sep 21, 2026
MSFT StochRSI turned up from oversoldMSFT StochRSI自超卖区上行
StochRSI popped back above 20 — the earliest oscillator heads-up that downside momentum is easing. $501.61.StochRSI重回20上方 — 下行动量趋缓的最早预警。$501.61。
Sep 18, 2026
NEARING A HIGH → BOTTOMING接近高点 → 筑底中
BUY SETUP买入预备
Sep 17, 2026
BOTTOMING → NEARING A HIGH筑底中 → 接近高点
TAKE PROFITS止盈
Sep 15, 2026
NEARING A HIGH → BOTTOMING接近高点 → 筑底中
BUY SETUP买入预备
Sep 14, 2026
BOTTOMING → NEARING A HIGH筑底中 → 接近高点
TAKE PROFITS止盈
Sep 14, 2026
MSFT took relative-strength leadershipMSFT 取得相对强弱领先
Relative strength vs SPY crossed above the 90th percentile of the last 90 days — leadership tends to persist. $505.41.相对标普500的强弱上穿近90日的第90百分位 — 领先往往延续。$505.41。
Showing the last 15 of显示最近15条,共 3433 signals条信号

Company profile公司档案

Microsoft Corporation is an American multinational technology company headquartered in Redmond, Washington.Microsoft Corporation 是一家美国跨国科技公司,总部位于华盛顿州雷德蒙德。

Demand chain:需求链: Contracted bookings (RPO) accelerating (+36% YoY to ~$375B, 1.3× revenue) — signed demand locked in ahead of recognition已签约订单(RPO)加速(同比+36%,约 $375B,覆盖营收 1.3 倍)——已锁定、尚未确认的需求

Style DNA — how it trades vs the market风格基因 — 相对市场的交易特征
Value价值
Below market低于市场
Profitability盈利能力
Below market低于市场
Quality质量
Above market高于市场
Investment资本投入
Below market低于市场
Shareholder payout股东回报
Below market低于市场
Low volatility低波动
Below market低于市场
Low market beta低市场敏感度
Below market低于市场
Earnings quality盈利质量
Below market低于市场
Short interest空头兴趣
Below market低于市场
Watch items — what could change the story关注项 — 可能改变故事的因素
  • Margin compression despite revenue growth
  • Capital intensity rising

Recent news最新动态

The whole US universe — S&P 1500 and Russell 2000 — read nightly.覆盖标普1500与罗素2000全部成分股 — 每晚更新解读。

Signals, options positioning, smart-money moves and factor DNA — the same engine that wrote this page covers 2,700+ US stocks.信号、期权持仓、聪明钱动向与因子基因 — 撰写本页的引擎覆盖2700多只美股。

Browse all stocks浏览所有股票 Open Terminal打开终端

Research context only — not investment advice. Past patterns do not guarantee future results.仅供研究参考,不构成投资建议。历史规律不代表未来表现。

Data through数据截至 2026-09-28 · regenerated nightly每晚更新 · Generated生成于 2026-09-29 04:25 UTC · All coverage所有股票 · Analyzer分析器